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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220216040429.560561C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Wed, 16 Feb 2022 04:04:28 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 160404
TWDEP=20

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed Feb 16 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure in the Gulf of
Mexico will continue to force northerly gale-force gap winds to
funnel into the Gulf of Tehuantepec through tonight, with seas of
up to 10 ft. As the high moves east, winds will diminish Wed,=20
with seas gradually diminishing into Wed night. Refer to the NWS=20
High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at=20
website:
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.hurricanes.gov/marine/MIAHSFEP2.sht=
ml__;!!DZ3fjg!uvDEAQGeIGA8WnxOCsq9GwyDiN0iRcLM8U7CBIyo4R5Eda69cyuQEAi0UfD-4=
9xGa4MfLAdV$  for more=20
details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...=20

A trough extends off the coast of Costa Rica near 08N84W to=20
to 05N91W. The ITCZ extends from 05N91W to 08N120W to beyond=20
08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 13N
between 107W to 134W.=20

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Refer to the Special Features section for details on an ongoing
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning.

Outside of Tehuantepec, moderate to fresh winds are noted off=20
the northern coast of Baja California with light to gentle winds=20
across the Baja California Sur offshores. Fresh to strong winds
continue in the northern Gulf of California, with light to=20
gentle winds in the remainder of the Gulf of California and the=20
Mexican offshores. Seas are up to 7 ft in the northern Gulf of
California and 3-6 ft are noted across the rest of the Mexico=20
offshores.

For the forecast, a cold front is expected to move southward=20
across Baja California and the Gulf of California tonight and=20
dissipate by Wed. Strong winds will continue across the northern
Gulf of California and offshore of Baja California tonight,
becoming light to gentle by Wed afternoon. Seas could reach 8 ft
in the northern Gulf tonight with the highest winds. Fresh winds
will persist off Cabo Corrientes Thu and Fri.=20

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and=20
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Strong northeast winds are offshore the Papagayo region with=20
seas to 8 ft. Fresh to locally strong northerly winds are=20
prevailing in the Gulf of Panama with seas to 5 ft. Light to=20
gentle SW to W winds remain elsewhere with seas 4-6 ft.=20
Scattered showers are moving off the Colombia coast and into the
Gulf of Panama.=20

For the forecast, strong NE winds will continue in the Gulf of=20
Papagayo through Wed night. Fresh winds will pulse in the Gulf of
Panama tonight and Wed night. Swell from the Gulf of Tehuantepec
moving across the El Salvador and Guatemala will subside by=20=20
tonight. Light to gentle winds will remain elsewhere.=20

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

High pressure is centered well north of the area, with a ridge=20
extending southeastward over waters north of the ITCZ. Moderate
to fresh NE to E winds are over the open waters, along with seas
of 5-8 ft due to primarily a NW swell.

For the forecast, a surface trough west of the area will approach
the forecast waters. The pressure gradient between the high=20
pressure and this trough will bring fresh to strong winds near
140W by tonight and continue through Thu. Seas are expected to
range 8-10 ft and spread eastward to 122W by late this week. Seas
will subside later in the weekend. A weak cold front is expected
to drop southward across the Baja California offshores and the=20
open waters of the Pacific. This will bring seas 8-10 ft this
evening and eventually merge with the aforementioned swell by=20
Wed.

$$
AKR


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