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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Tropical Disturbance 5 
Message-ID: <20220216072030.64EBC1C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Wed, 16 Feb 2022 07:20:30 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 160635
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/5/20212022
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 5

2.A POSITION 2022/02/16 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.0 S / 70.1 E
(FOURTEEN    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/16 18 UTC: 14.1 S / 68.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE

24H: 2022/02/17 06 UTC: 14.1 S / 66.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 240 SW: 165 NW: 110

36H: 2022/02/17 18 UTC: 14.1 S / 64.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 280 SW: 220 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 130 SW: 95 NW: 85

48H: 2022/02/18 06 UTC: 14.5 S / 62.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 335 SW: 280 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 120

60H: 2022/02/18 18 UTC: 15.3 S / 61.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 380 SW: 335 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 140

72H: 2022/02/19 06 UTC: 16.2 S / 59.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 425 SW: 390 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SW: 175 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/20 06 UTC: 17.4 S / 57.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 490 SW: 465 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 220 SW: 205 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 75

120H: 2022/02/21 06 UTC: 18.4 S / 55.3 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 500 SW: 480 NW: 315
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 260 SW: 240 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 90
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 80 SW: 80 NW: 70

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.0


SYSTEM 05-20212022 IS IN A SHEARED PATTERN WITH AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CENTER AND DEEP CONVECTION STRONGLY OFFSET TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST
UNDER THE EFFECT OF MODERATE TO STRONG EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OF
ABOUT 20/30KT. ITS ESTIMATED INTENSITY REMAINS AT 25KT.

DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK WESTWARDS ALONG THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LOW-TROPOSPHERE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO ITS
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. FROM FRIDAY ONWARDS, A SOUTHWESTWARD TURN SHOULD
OCCUR WITH THE STRENGTHENING OF GEOPOTENTIALS TO THE SOUTH-EAST THEN
TO THE EAST OR NORTH-EAST, BUT WITH A GENERAL MOVEMENT THAT WILL
REMAIN DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY THE MID-TROPOSPHERE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AS
THE STEERING FLOW MOVES UPWARDS AS THE SYSTEM GRADUALLY INTENSIFIES.
THE FORECAST TRACK IS BASED ON A MEDIAN SCENARIO AND FAVOURS A
PASSAGE OFF THE NORTH OF MAURITIUS AND REUNION ISLANDS, AT A STILL
UNCERTAIN DISTANCE.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 05 IS CURRENTLY IN
MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IN THE SHORT TERM DUE
TO STRONG EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. THE FAIRLY RAPID MOVEMENT IN THE
DIRECTION OF WIND SHEAR, GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE, AN EXCELLENT
OCEANIC POTENTIAL, AS WELL AS THE GRADUAL APPROACH OF THE SYSTEM
TOWARDS THE RIDGE'S AXIS BY THE END OF THE WEEK, SHOULD ALLOW GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION AS IT APPROACHES THE MASCARENE ISLANDS, POTENTIALLY
UP TO THE STAGE OF SEVERE TROPICAL STORM OR TROPICAL CYCLONE FROM
THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER, THE GUIDANCE IS STRONGLY DISPERSED ON THE
INTENSITY FORECAST, WHICH IS STILL VERY UNCERTAIN.

GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM, IT
IS TOO EARLY TO QUANTIFY A POSSIBLE THREAT TO INHABITED LANDS.
INHABITANTS OF MAURITIUS AND REUNION ARE INVITED TO CLOSELY FOLLOW
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM.=

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