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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220216085437.6D4011C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Wed, 16 Feb 2022 08:54:37 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 160849
TWDEP=20

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by NWS Ocean Prediction Center Washington DC
1005 UTC Wed Feb 16 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure in the Gulf of
Mexico will continue to force northerly gale-force gap winds
across the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight with seas of up to 10 ft.
Gale-force winds will end by 12Z Wed with fresh to strong winds
diminishing by this afternoon. Seas are expected to gradually=20
subside by tonight. Refer to the NWS High Seas Forecast issued=20
by the National Hurricane Center at website:
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.hurricanes.gov/marine/MIAHSFEP2.sht=
ml__;!!DZ3fjg!ui9nJ8tc2uDDdHoYqEUIG1hv9wz7yvsnyuPnr7XZuyNz-RtvosXUQUsmhKP6M=
LzwJ1thDqs4$  for more=20
details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...=20

A trough extends from 07N85W to to 05N93W. The ITCZ extends from
05N93W to 07N120W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate=20
convection is noted from 03N to 10N between 88W to 140W.=20

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Refer to the Special Features section for details on an ongoing
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning.

Outside of Tehuantepec, a cold front is slowly pushing southward
across northern Baja California and Gulf of California.
Northwesterly moderate to fresh winds are noted off the northern
coast of Baja California with northerly light to gentle winds=20
across the Baja California Sur offshores. Fresh to strong winds=20
continue in the northern Gulf of California, with gentle to=20
moderate in the remainder of the Gulf. Light to gentle winds are=20
noted across the rest of the Mexican offshores. Seas are up to 7=20
ft in the northern Gulf of California and 3-6 ft are noted across
the rest of the Mexico offshores.

For the forecast, the cold front will dissipate later today. The
strong winds will diminish by this afternoon in the Gulf of=20
California and the Baja California offshores. Seas in the=20
northern Gulf of California will subside later today. Swell=20
across the Baja California offshores will continue through Wed=20
night and subside by Thu night. Fresh winds will persist off Cabo
Corrientes Thu and Fri.=20

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and=20
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Strong northeast winds are offshore the Papagayo region with=20
seas 8-9 ft. Fresh to locally strong northerly winds are=20
prevailing in the Gulf of Panama with seas to 6 ft. Light to=20
gentle SW to W winds remain elsewhere with seas 4-6 ft. Scattered
showers are moving off the Colombia coast and into the Gulf of=20
Panama.=20

For the forecast, strong NE winds will prevail in the Gulf of=20
Papagayo through Thu morning. Seas will drop below 8 ft by this
afternoon. Fresh winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama tonight=20
and Thu night. Swell from the Gulf of Tehuantepec moving across=20
the El Salvador and Guatemala will subside by early this morning.
Light to gentle winds will remain elsewhere.=20

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

Strong high pressure is centered well north of the area with a=20
ridge extending southeastward over waters north of the ITCZ.=20
Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are over the open waters.
Northerly swell of 8-9 ft is moving into the northern forecast
waters near and W of Guadalupe Island, N of 27N between 117W and
125W. Strong winds are W of the forecast waters caused by the=20
strong pressure gradient from the high pressure north of the area
and the ITCZ. Seas are moving eastward into the area from the
strong winds, ranging from 8-9 ft, from 14N to 28N and W of=20
135W. Seas are 4-7 ft across the rest of the open waters.=20

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will spread across the=20
western waters W of 135W through Thu. Swell will continue to=20
propagate eastward to 122W and range 8-10 ft. Seas will begin to
subside by Fri and drop below 8 ft by the weekend. The weak cold
front dropping southward across the Baja California offshores=20
and the open waters will dissipate today. Seas ranging 8-10 ft=20
will continue to spread southward and eventually merge with the=20
aforementioned swell today.

$$
AReinhart


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