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From: <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: RSMC La Reunion Tropical Cyclone Analysis
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Date: Wed, 16 Feb 2022 11:35:41 +0000
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497 
AWIO20 FMEE 161134

TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE

BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN

DATE: 2022/02/16 AT 1200 UTC

PART 1:

WARNING SUMMARY:


Warning WTIO20 and WTIO30 FMEE 005/05 issued at 06UTC on Tropical Disturbance 05-20212022. Next warnings at 12Z.

Last warnings issued at 00 UTC this morning on Overland Depression DUMAKO.

Bulletins to be issued at 12UTC on Area of Disturbed Weather no06-20212022.


PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:


The monsoon flow is established over the whole basin. It feeds two low-pressure areas present east of 60oE. These two tropical low pressure systems concentrate most of the convective activity over the basin. This one is also present within the monsoon flow, in active rainstorm clusters circulating from West to East between the Seychelles and the Chagos archipelago.

Tropical disturbance no05-20212022 :

Position : 14.1S / 69.7E

Forward motion : West 9 kt

Maximum wind averaged over 10 minutes : 25 kt

Minimum central pressure : 995 hPa
For more information, please refer to the WTIO21 and WTIO31 advisories issued at 06UTC and following.

There is a very high risk that this system becomes a tropical storm during the next 48 hours.

Area of Disturbed Weather no06-20212022:

The minimum low pressure system that has been tracked for a few days in the australian responsability area is about to enter our responsability area. This system has a monsoon low structure: poorly defined center, deep convection little organized and fluctuating but strong winds at 30 kt and even locally 35 kt in the eastern semicircle in particular. It will be followed irregularly from 12Z.
For more information, refer to the advisories to be published at 12UTC.

There is a strong risk that this system will become a tropical storm during the next 24-36h.

Overland Depression DUMAKO:

The system landed on Madagascar last night on Sainte-Marie Island. Since the end of the night, the convective activity has classically collapsed over the land. Since this morning, the visible images barely allow to spot a circulation estimated at 06Z around 16.7oS and 46.2oE. This afternoon's images suggest that the remnants of DUMAKO are reduced to a surface trough approaching 45oE. Tonight, this area of low pressure will return to the Mozambique Channel. The environment is mixed for a re-intensification with a lack of convergence of low layers (especially on the northern side) but conditions of humidity in the middle troposphere and shear rather favorable. Some numerical guidance suggest a possible (re)development by Friday when the system is forecast to reach the Mozambican coastlines around Quelimane. This scenario is currently credited with a low risk but the system is being closely monitored for possible redevelopment.

There is a low risk that the remnants of DUMAKO will redevelop over the Mozambique Channel in the next 36 hours.


NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of the genesis of a moderate tropical storm over the basin and within the next five days:

Very low:       less than 10%              Moderate:        30% to 60%        Very high:      over 90%
Low:             10% to 30%                  High:               60% to 90%

The Southwestern Indian Ocean basin extends from the equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.

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