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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220216153248.44A0A1C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Wed, 16 Feb 2022 15:32:48 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 161532
TWDEP=20

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed Feb 16 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure in the Gulf of
Mexico will continue to force northerly gale-force gap winds
across the Gulf of Tehuantepec this morning with seas of up to=20
10 ft. Gale-force winds will end later today with fresh to strong
winds diminishing tonight Seas are expected to gradually subside
by Thu morning. Refer to the NWS High Seas Forecast issued by=20
the National Hurricane Center at website:
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.hurricanes.gov/marine/MIAHSFEP2.sht=
ml__;!!DZ3fjg!tkmSoZIKMN5JFc89sG-XS2h19oI93H28qdLoaGR-Unwi68wLuJkrxRL7sa8b6=
gBGWZri-unG$  for more=20
details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...=20

A trough extends from 07N81W to to 05N95W. The ITCZ extends from
05N95W to 08N119W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate=20
convection is noted from 03N to 10N between 81W to 140W.=20

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Refer to the Special Features section for details on an ongoing
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning.

Outside of Tehuantepec, a weak cold front is slowly pushing=20
southward across central Baja California and Gulf of California.=20
Northwesterly fresh winds are noted off the northern coast of=20
Baja California with northerly gentle to moderate winds across=20
the Baja California Sur offshores. Strong winds continue in the=20
northern Gulf of California, with gentle to moderate in the=20
remainder of the Gulf. Light to gentle winds are noted across the
rest of the Mexican offshores. Seas are up to 7 ft in the=20
northern Gulf of California an to the west of Baja California
Norte and 3-6 ft are noted across the rest of the Mexico=20
offshores.

For the forecast, the weak cold front pushing across Baja=20
California and the Gulf of California will dissipate later=20
today. The strong winds will diminish by this afternoon in the=20
Gulf of California and the Baja California offshores. Seas in the
northern Gulf of California will subside later today. Swell=20
across the Baja California offshores will continue through Wed=20
night and subside by Thu night. Fresh winds will persist off Cabo
Corrientes Thu and Fri.=20

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and=20
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Strong northeast winds are offshore the Papagayo region with=20
seas 8-9 ft. Fresh to locally strong northerly winds are=20
prevailing in the Gulf of Panama with seas to 7 ft. Light to=20
gentle SW to W winds remain elsewhere with seas 4-6 ft.
Convection previously offshore the Colombian coast and in the
Gulf of Panama has diminished.

For the forecast, strong NE winds will prevail in the Gulf of=20
Papagayo through Thu morning. Seas will drop below 8 ft by this
afternoon. Fresh winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama tonight=20
and Thu night. Swell from the Gulf of Tehuantepec moving across=20
the El Salvador and Guatemala will subside by early this morning.
Light to gentle winds will remain elsewhere.=20

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

Strong high pressure is centered well north of the area with a=20
ridge extending southeastward over waters north of the ITCZ.=20

Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are over the open waters.
Northerly swell of 8 to 10 ft is moving into the northern=20
forecast waters near and W of Guadalupe Island, N of 26N between
115W and 128W. Strong winds along 140W are being caused by the=20
strong pressure gradient from the high pressure north of the area
and the ITCZ. Seas are moving eastward into the area from the=20
strong winds, ranging from 8-9 ft, N of 12N and W of 135W. Seas=20
are 4-7 ft across the rest of the open waters.=20

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will spread across the=20
western waters W of 135W through Thu. Swell will continue to=20
propagate eastward to 122W and range 8-10 ft. Seas will begin to
subside by Fri and drop below 8 ft Sun. Seas ranging 8-10 ft W of
Baja California will continue to spread southward and eventually
merge with the aforementioned swell today.

$$
KONARIK


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