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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Zone Of Disturbed Weather 6 
Message-ID: <20220217004807.32CF31C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Thu, 17 Feb 2022 00:48:07 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 170045
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 2/6/20212022
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 6

2.A POSITION 2022/02/17 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.1 S / 88.7 E
(EIGHTEEN    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY EIGHT    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 555 SE: 835 SW: 650 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1001 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/17 12 UTC: 20.9 S / 87.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 610 SE: 785 SW: 405 NW: 535
34 KT NE: 335 SE: 315 SW: 150 NW: 220

24H: 2022/02/18 00 UTC: 24.1 S / 86.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 630 SE: 705 SW: 510 NW: 545
34 KT NE: 350 SE: 250 SW: 205 NW: 230

36H: 2022/02/18 12 UTC: 27.7 S / 85.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 650 SE: 675 SW: 610 NW: 555
34 KT NE: 350 SE: 260 SW: 280 NW: 220

48H: 2022/02/19 00 UTC: 31.3 S / 86.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 740 SE: 720 SW: 705 NW: 610
34 KT NE: 400 SE: 305 SW: 345 NW: 250

60H: 2022/02/19 12 UTC: 34.9 S / 87.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 740 SE: 795 SW: 685 NW: 650
34 KT NE: 405 SE: 325 SW: 305 NW: 295

72H: 2022/02/20 00 UTC: 37.7 S / 90.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 730 SE: 770 SW: 805 NW: 715
34 KT NE: 400 SE: 350 SW: 415 NW: 305

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/21 00 UTC: 43.0 S / 101.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 740 SE: 720 SW: 665 NW: 390
34 KT NE: 405 SE: 280 SW: 305 NW: 130


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
THE MINIMUM DEPRESSION COMING FROM THE AUSTRALIAN ZONE IS NOW
EVOLVING OVER OUR BASIN.
THE SYSTEM PRESENTS A MONSOON DEPRESSION STRUCTURE WITH: A FRAGMENTED
AND FLUCTUATING CONVECTION AND STRONG WINDS FAR FROM THE CENTER AND
PRESENT PRIMARILY IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INTENSITY ANALYSIS
OF THESE ATYPICAL STRUCTURES IS BASED ON SCATTEROMETRIC PASSES (HY-2C
FROM 2130Z SHOWING A WIND CORONA OF ABOUT 30 KT FAR FROM THE CENTER
IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE). THIS STRUCTURE JUSTIFIES THE
CLASSIFICATION AS A DISTURBED AREA.

THE SYSTEM IS EVOLVING AT THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF A LOW TO MID
LEVELS AT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND AHEAD OF A DEEP WEEKNESS OF THIS
RIDGE IN CONNECTION WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A MID-LAT TROUGH. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD RAPIDLY CURVE SOUTHWARDS OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS TOWARD THE
TROUGH AND THEN MERGE WITHIN THE MID-LAT WESTERLIES.

ON THIS TRAJECTORY, THIS SYSTEM HAS LITTLE TIME (24 TO 36H MAX) TO
TAKE ADVANTAGE OF FAVORABLE OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS. GIVEN
THE BROAD STRUCTURE OF THE WIND FIELD, A MODEST INTENSIFICATION IS
ENVISAGED ASSOCIATED WITH A MODERATE PROBABILITY THAT THE STRUCTURE
WILL EVOLVE TOWARDS A MORE CLASSIC CONFIGURATION. FROM FRIDAY
ONWARDS, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DETERIORATE AS WE APPROACH 30S
AND BECOME CONDUCIVE TO THE BEGINNING OF AN EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION.

THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN FAR FROM ANY INHABITED LAND.

NEXT ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM AT 00 UTC TOMORROW MORNING (IRREGULAR
MONITORING).=

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