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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220217085538.9ABDB1C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Thu, 17 Feb 2022 08:55:38 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 170855
TWDEP=20

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu Feb 17 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Light to gentle winds will
prevail across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Thu night. As a
cold front moves across the Gulf of Mexico, high pressure will
build north of the region on Fri. Strong northerly winds will
begin across the Gulf of Tehuantepec on Fri afternoon. Winds will
increase to gale- force by Fri evening and continue through=20
early Sun morning. Seas will build to 11 ft on Sat and quickly=20
subside on Sun as the gale-force winds end. Refer to the NWS High
Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at=20
website:
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.hurricanes.gov/marine/MIAHSFEP2.sht=
ml__;!!DZ3fjg!uV0_ZEs3H8k0UuNRi75PIlBd4LtSUAss_yozjfTgLx8KKcdWlOwPIB2MKtlX8=
_HzjNcaSKIj$  for more
details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...=20

A trough extends off the coast of Colombia near 07N78W to 09N86W
to 03N93W. The ITCZ extends from 03N94W to 07N120W to beyond=20
07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 08N=20
between 102W to 127W and from 06N to 09N and W of 134W.=20

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

See the Special Features section for information on the upcoming
Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event.=20

Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the Baja California
offshores. Light to gentle winds prevail across the Gulf of=20
California. Northerly swell continues to linger across the Baja=20
California offshores, near Guadalupe Island, with seas up to 8=20
ft. Moderate to fresh winds are noted off the coast of Cabo=20
Corrientes, with light to gentle winds across the rest of the
Mexico offshores. Seas range 5-8 ft across the Baja California
and Baja California Sur offshores and 4-6 ft across the=20
southwest Mexico offshores. Seas are 3 ft or less in the Gulf of
California.=20

For the forecast, gale-force winds are expected to develop across
the Gulf of Tehuantepec by Fri night and continue through early
Sun morning. Seas will build to 11 ft by Sat and quickly subside
by Sun. Swell will linger across the Baja California offshores=20
through tonight and subside by Fri. Fresh to strong winds will=20
develop off Cabo Corrientes Fri afternoon. Fresh to locally=20
strong winds are expected across the Gulf of California this=20
afternoon and persist through Fri night. Seas will build to 6 ft=20
by Fri morning.=20

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and=20
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to strong NE winds persist offshore the Papagayo region=20
with seas 8 ft. Fresh to locally strong northerly winds are=20
prevailing in the Gulf of Panama with seas to 6 ft. Light to=20
gentle SW to W winds remain elsewhere with seas 4-6 ft. Scattered
showers are moving off the Colombia coast, noted from 01N to 08N
and E of 83W.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds will end across the=20
Gulf of Papagayo by this morning. Strong winds are expected to=20
return to Papagayo on Fri night and persist through early next=20
week. Fresh winds will pulse at night in the Gulf of Panama=20
through the weekend. Light to gentle winds will remain elsewhere.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

Strong high pressure is centered well north of the area with a=20
ridge extending southeastward over waters north of the ITCZ.=20
The pressure gradient between the high and ITCZ is causing fresh
to strong NE to E winds over the open waters N of the ITCZ and W
of 135W. Swell continues to move across the western and northern
forecast waters. The western portion of the swell is noted N of=20
07N and W of 130W and the northern portion of the swell N of 25N=20
and W of 117W.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will prevail over western
waters W of 135W through this afternoon. Swell will continue to=20
propagate eastward to 120W and range from 8-11 ft. Seas will=20
begin to subside by Fri night, with a small area of 8 ft seas
expected to linger in the western waters near 140W on Sun.

$$
AReinhart


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