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From: <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: RSMC La Reunion Tropical Cyclone Analysis
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Message-ID: <20220217100421.D5B5D1C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Thu, 17 Feb 2022 10:04:21 +0000
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192 
AWIO20 FMEE 171003

TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE

BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN

DATE: 2022/02/17 AT 1200 UTC

PART 1:

WARNING SUMMARY:


Warning WTIO30 FMEE 015/04 which will be issued at 12UTC on Tropical Disturbance DUMAKO.

Warning WTIO20 and WTIO30 FMEE 009/05 issued at 06UTC on Moderate Tropicale Storm EMNATI. Next warnings at 12UTC.

Warning WTIO20 and WTIO30 FMEE 002/06 to be issued at 12UTC on Area of Disturbed Weather no06-20212022.


PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:


The monsoon flow remained established over the whole basin. It feeds the two low-pressure areas present east of 60oE. These two tropical low pressure systems concentrate most of the convective activity over the basin. Convective activity is also present on the equatorial side of the monsoon flow and more modestly in the tropical disturbance DUMAKO.

Moderate Tropical Storm EMNATI :

Position at 09UTC : 14S / 65.2E

Displacement : West 12 kt

Maximum wind averaged over 10 minutes : 45 kt

Minimum central pressure : 987 hPa
For more information, please refer to the WTIO20 and WTIO30 advisories issued at 06UTC and following.

Area of Disturbed Weather no06-20212022:

Position at 09UTC : 20S / 88.4E

Displacement : South-South-West 12 kt

Maximum wind averaged over 10 minutes : 35 kt

Minimum central pressure : 990 hPa
For more information, please refer to the WTIO20 and WTIO30 advisories issued at 00UTC and following, to be published at 12UTC.

Tropical Disturbance DUMAKO :

The system whose monitoring had been stopped on 16/02 at 00UTC is again monitored by the RSMC of Reunion in irregular advisories.

Position at 09UTC : 17.2S / 40.0E

Displacement : West 10 kt

Maximum wind averaged over 10 minutes : 25 kt

Minimum central pressure : 990 hPa
For more information, please refer to the WTIO30 advisory issued at 00UTC and following, to be published at 12UTC.

Development of an other moderate tropical storm is not expected for the next 5 days.


NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of the genesis of a moderate tropical storm over the basin and within the next five days:

Very low:       less than 10%              Moderate:        30% to 60%        Very high:      over 90%
Low:             10% to 30%                  High:               60% to 90%

The Southwestern Indian Ocean basin extends from the equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.

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