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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Zone Of Disturbed Weather 6 
Message-ID: <20220217124304.92DAF1C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Thu, 17 Feb 2022 12:43:04 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 171241
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/6/20212022
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 6

2.A POSITION 2022/02/17 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.6 S / 88.2 E
(TWENTY    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY EIGHT    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.5/1.5/D 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 520 SE: 835 SW: 555 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 405 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1003 HPA / 1400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/18 00 UTC: 23.4 S / 87.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 545 SE: 795 SW: 545 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 520 SW: 400 NW: 140

24H: 2022/02/18 12 UTC: 26.8 S / 86.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 565 SE: 805 SW: 555 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 545 SW: 415 NW: 140

36H: 2022/02/19 00 UTC: 31.1 S / 86.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 585 SE: 815 SW: 575 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 565 SW: 435 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 205 SW: 140 NW: 55

48H: 2022/02/19 12 UTC: 34.6 S / 88.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 600 SE: 835 SW: 585 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 595 SW: 455 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SW: 150 NW: 55

60H: 2022/02/20 00 UTC: 37.7 S / 90.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 620 SE: 845 SW: 600 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 610 SW: 470 NW: 140

72H: 2022/02/20 12 UTC: 40.1 S / 95.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 640 SE: 850 SW: 610 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 640 SW: 490 NW: 140

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=1.5

ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM STILL PRESENTS A MONSOON DEPRESSION STRUCTURE
(FRAGMENTED AND FLUCTUATING CONVECTION AND STRONG WINDS FAR FROM THE
CENTER AND PRESENT MAINLY IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE - CENTER STILL
NOT WELL DEFINED), THE COMPARISON OF IMAGES AT 24 HOURS INTERVAL
SHOWS THAT THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS GRADUALLY INCREASING WITHIN THE
CIRCULATION. THE MAXIMUM WIND AT 35 KT, PRESENT ESSENTIALLY IN THE
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT, IS ESTIMATED FROM THE MORNING ASCAT PASSES.

NO CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST: THE SYSTEM IS EVOLVING ON THE
WESTERN EDGE OF A LOW TO MID-TROPOSPHERE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND AHEAD
OF A DEEP WEAKNESS OF THIS RIDGE RELATED TO THE ARRIVAL OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE SYSTEM SHOULD QUICKLY EVACUATE SOUTHWARD
DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS BY INTEGRATING THE MID-LAT WESTERLIES.

THERE ARE STILL A FEW HOURS (12 TO 24 HOURS MAXIMUM) TO TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF FAVORABLE OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS. GIVEN THE
BROAD STRUCTURE OF THE WIND FIELD, THERE IS A MODERATE PROBABILITY
THAT THE STRUCTURE WILL EVOLVE TOWARDS A MORE CLASSIC CONFIGURATION
OVER THIS SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. FROM FRIDAY ONWARDS, THE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DETERIORATE NEAR 30S AND BECOME CONDUCIVE TO
THE BEGINNING OF AN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION.

THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY AWAY FROM ANY INHABITED LAND.

THIS SYSTEM IS FOLLOWED BY IRREGULAR BULLETINS.=

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