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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220217155740.93EDD1C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Thu, 17 Feb 2022 15:57:40 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 171553
TWDEP=20

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu Feb 17 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Light to gentle winds will
prevail across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through tonight. As a=20
cold front moves across the Gulf of Mexico, high pressure will=20
build north of the region on Fri. Strong northerly winds will=20
begin across the Gulf of Tehuantepec late Fri morning. Winds=20
will increase to gale-force late Fri afternoon or early Fri
evening and continue through early Sun morning. Seas will build=20
to 12-13 ft on Sat and quickly subside on Sun after the gale-=20
force winds end. Refer to the NWS High Seas Forecast issued by=20
the National Hurricane Center at website:=20
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.hurricanes.gov/marine/MIAHSFEP2.sht=
ml__;!!DZ3fjg!rvNWb7WlLKen_ELQec81KzZqST1cLLgzBRrzJHIBElwgjxBoZBRIn63zQDHtF=
_f_izlSqlH0$  for more=20
details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...=20

A trough extends off the coast of Colombia near 07N78W to 06N83W
to 05N96W. The ITCZ extends from 05N96W to 05N112W to 07N125W to
07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 07N
between 77W and 83W, from 07N to 09N between 105W and 111W and
from 07N to 11N between 121W and 127W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

See the Special Features section for information on the upcoming
Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event.=20

Gentle to moderate winds N winds prevail across the Baja=20
California offshores and across the Gulf of California.=20
Northerly swell continues to linger across the Baja California=20
offshores, with seas 6 to 8 ft. Moderate to locally fresh NW=20
winds are noted off the coast of Cabo Corrientes, with light to=20
gentle NW winds across the rest of the Mexico offshores. Seas
range from 3-5 ft across the southwest Mexico offshores from
Oaxaca to Jalisco. Seas are 3 ft or less in the Gulf of=20
California.

For the forecast, swell will linger across the Baja California=20
offshores through tonight and subside by Fri. Fresh to locally
strong NW winds are expected across the Gulf of California this=20
afternoon and will persist through Fri morning, with moderate to
fresh winds then continuing through Fri night. Seas will build=20
to 6 ft there by Fri morning. Fresh to strong winds will develop
off Cabo Corrientes Fri afternoon and evening.=20

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and=20
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to strong NE winds are occurring offshore the Papagayo=20
region with seas 8 ft. Fresh northerly winds are prevailing in=20
the Gulf of Panama with seas 6-7 ft. Light to gentle winds remain
elsewhere, with seas 4-6 ft. Scattered moderate convection is
noted offshore Colombia and Panama, described in the monsoon
trough/ITCZ section above.

For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds will continue to
pulse in the Papagayo region through the forecast period. The
strongest winds are expected Fri night through Sun night, with
seas building to 10 ft offshore Papagayo Sat night. Fresh N=20
winds will pulse at night in the Gulf of Panama through the=20
weekend, with strong winds possible there Sat night. Light to=20
gentle winds will remain elsewhere.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

Strong high pressure is centered well north of the area with a=20
ridge extending southward over waters north of the ITCZ. The=20
pressure gradient between the high and ITCZ is causing fresh to=20
strong NE to E winds over the open waters N of the ITCZ to 20N
and W of 130W. Seas in this area are 8 to 11 ft in mixed NW swell
and NE wind waves. Farther to the northeast, a set of northerly=20
swell is causing seas of 8-11 ft north of 23N between 118W-134W.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong winds occurring west of
130W will diminish slightly to fresh this afternoon. Seas
over the area south of 20N and west of 130W are forecast to
remain 8-10 ft through Fri night, subsiding to 7-9 ft Sat. Seas=20
over the northern swell area will subside to below 10 ft tonight.

$$
Hagen


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