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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian Ocean 
Message-ID: <20220217175138.0EBFE1C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Thu, 17 Feb 2022 17:51:37 +0000
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ABIO10 PGTW 171800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/171800Z-181800ZFEB2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/171351ZFEB2022//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/170251ZFEB2022//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 17FEB22 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EMNATI) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 13.9S 64.2E, APPROXIMATELY 543 NM NORTHEAST OF
PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS AND HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 55 KNOTS GUSTING TO 70 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 171500) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
17.4S 89.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.7S 88.5E, APPROXIMATELY 706 NM
SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD, POORLY-DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH FLARING DEEP
CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
WITH MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(20-25 KTS). SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE AT 27-28C.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT TRACKING THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY BEING ASSESSED AS A MONSOON
DEPRESSION WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF CONSOLIDATING INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF B


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