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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Moderate Tropical Storm 5 (emnati) 
Message-ID: <20220217193301.187F11C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Thu, 17 Feb 2022 19:33:01 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 171835
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/5/20212022
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (EMNATI)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/17 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.7 S / 63.7 E
(THIRTEEN    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY THREE    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 130 SW: 240 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 45 SW: 95 NW: 95

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1003 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/18 06 UTC: 14.2 S / 62.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 295 SW: 295 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SW: 110 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SW: 65 NW: 35

24H: 2022/02/18 18 UTC: 15.2 S / 60.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 370 SW: 335 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SW: 165 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 75

36H: 2022/02/19 06 UTC: 16.3 S / 59.4 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 370 SW: 405 NW: 305
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 220 SW: 195 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 35

48H: 2022/02/19 18 UTC: 17.1 S / 58.0 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 400 SW: 380 NW: 325
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 240 SW: 185 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 100
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 35 NW: 45

60H: 2022/02/20 06 UTC: 17.6 S / 56.8 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 405 SW: 370 NW: 350
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 260 SW: 220 NW: 205
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 100
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

72H: 2022/02/20 18 UTC: 17.9 S / 55.5 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 425 SW: 405 NW: 350
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 260 SW: 230 NW: 215
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 75

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/21 18 UTC: 18.5 S / 52.5 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 445 SW: 425 NW: 350
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 260 SW: 230 NW: 220
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 75

120H: 2022/02/22 18 UTC: 19.7 S / 48.9 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 390 SW: 370 NW: 315
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 240 SW: 240 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 90
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5-

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTION HAS REMAINED PARTICULARLY STRONG
WITH VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE CENTER. 1659Z AND 1749Z ASCAT
PASSES ALLOW TO ESTIMATE THE CENTER'S LOCATION AND SHOW THAT GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE NOW PRESENT IN ALL SECTORS OF THE CIRCULATION,
INCLUDING THE SOUTHEAST. MAXIMUM MEASURED ASCAT WINDS ARE AROUND 40
KT. A 1345Z SMAP PASS INDICATED WINDS PEAKING AT 43 KT. OBJECTIVE AND
SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES HAVEN'T CHANGED VERY MUCH, STILL CLOSE TO T3.5.
CURRENT INTENSITY IS THEREFORE KEPT AT 45 KT.

AFTER HAVING FOLLOWED A WESTWARD TRACH DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS,
EMNATI IS NOW ABOUT TO START A SOUTH-WESTERN TURN UNDER THE EFFECT OF
THE STRENGTHENING OF GEOPOTENTIALS TO THE SOUTH-EAST AND NORTH-EAST
OF THE SYSTEM. THE GENERAL MOVEMENT WILL NEVERTHELESS REMAIN DRIVEN
PRIMARILY BY THE MID-TROPOSPHERE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH REMAINS WELL
ESTABLISHED, UNDER A MORE ELEVATED STEERING FLOW AS THE SYSTEM
INTENSIFIES. THE FORECAST TRACK, BASED ON A MEDIAN SCENARIO, FAVOURS
A PASSAGE CLOSE TO SAINT-BRANDON AND THEN IN THE NORTHERN SECTOR OF
THE GREAT MASCARENE ISLANDS, BUT AT A STILL UNCERTAIN DISTANCE
(250-300 KM NORTH OF MAURITIUS, 300-350 KM NORTH OF REUNION ISLAND
BUT WITH AN UNCERTAINTY OF MORE OR LESS 150-200 KM) FROM SUNDAY OR
MONDAY, THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE WEAKENS A LITTLE AND THE SYSTEM IS
MORE CLEARLY STEERED WESTWARDS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE, DIRECTING IT TOWARDS MADAGASCAR, BUT WITH INCREASING
DISPERSION IN CONNECTION WITH POSSIBLE WEAKNESSES IN THE RIDGE WHICH
COULD ATTRACT IT MORE OR LESS SOUTHWARD.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE STILL A BIT
SHEARED FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36H (THE FAST MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM IN
THE DIRECTION OF THE SHEAR ATTENUATING A BIT ITS INFLUENCE), FAVORING
SLOW DEVELOPMENT. GOOD OCEANIC POTENTIAL THEN THE GRADUAL APPROACH OF
THE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE'S AXIS THIS WEEKEND WITH
VERY GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE SHOULD ALLOW MORE ENHANCED INTENSIFICATION
AS EMNATI APPROACHES TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT MASCARENE ISLANDS,
POTENTIALLY AT INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE. NEVERTHELESS, THE
EVENTUAL OCCURRENCE OF AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC) COULD LEAD
INTENSITIES DIFFERENT FROM THOSE FORECASTED, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN THE
NORTH OF THE MASCARENES AND THE MALAGASY COAST.

WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS SYSTEM, CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE OVER
MAURITIUS (SATURDAY MORNING) THEN REUNION (SATURDAY EVENING) WITH AN
INCREASING PROBABILITY OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS (MOST
PROBABLE SCENARIO: NEAR-GALE OR GALE CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS THAT COULD
APPROACH 100 KM/H).
MOREOVER, THE PROBABILITY OF IMPACT IS INCREASING FOR THE EAST COAST
OF MADAGASCAR FROM TUESDAY, WITH A HIGHER RISK BETWEEN TOAMASINA AND
MANANJARA, EVEN IF ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS (ESPECIALLY FURTHER SOUTH)
REMAIN POSSIBLE.
THE INHABITANTS OF THE MASCARENE ISLANDS AND THE EAST COAST OF
MADAGASCAR ARE THUS INVITED TO FOLLOW WITH ATTENTION THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS SYSTEM.=

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