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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220217211100.6796E1C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Thu, 17 Feb 2022 21:11:00 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 172110
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Feb 17 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Light to gentle winds will
prevail across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through tonight. As a=20
cold front moves across the Gulf of Mexico, high pressure will=20
build north of the region on Fri. Strong northerly winds will=20
begin across the Gulf of Tehuantepec late Fri morning. Winds=20
will increase to gale-force late Fri afternoon or early Fri
evening and continue through early Sun morning. Seas will build
to 12 ft by Fri night and to 14 ft by Sat night before quickly=20
subsiding on Sun after the gale-force winds end. Refer to the=20
NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at
website: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.hurricanes.gov/marine/MIAH=
SFEP2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!rAJW05_2GgXktsUhcO4S8WExP_q9ZD3neLEfoCmgVV2YgF6mIIHX=
9N7FB3ClvHePCZBp1urD$  for=20
more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...=20

A trough extends from 08N83W to 06N90W to 06N96W. The ITCZ=20
extends from 06N96W to 06N115W to 07N130W to 08N140W. Scattered=20
moderate convection is noted from 01N to 09N between 77W and=20
83W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

See the Special Features section for information on the upcoming
Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event.=20

Latest scatterometer data shows moderate to fresh N winds
occurring over portions of the Gulf of California, where seas are
likely 2-4 ft. Gentle NW to N winds are offshore Baja California
Norte. Scatterometer data shows moderate N winds offshore Baja=20
California Sur. Seas are 6 to 8 ft in NW to N swell off Baja=20
California Norte and 6 to 7 ft off Baja California Sur. Moderate=20
to locally fresh NW winds are likely occurring near Cabo=20
Corrientes. Gentle W to NW winds prevail elsewhere with 3-5 ft=20
seas.

For the forecast, moderate swell will linger across the Baja=20
California offshores through tonight and subside by Fri. Fresh to
locally strong NW winds are expected across the Gulf of=20
California through Fri morning, with moderate to fresh winds then
continuing through Fri night. Seas will build to 6 ft there by=20
Fri morning. Fresh to locally strong winds will occur off Cabo=20
Corrientes Fri afternoon and evening. Fresh to strong winds and
building seas are possible early next week offshore Baja=20
California Norte and in the northern Gulf of California as a cold
front moves into the area.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and=20
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Moderate to fresh NE winds are occurring offshore the Papagayo=20
region. Moderate northerly winds are prevailing in the Gulf of=20
Panama. Light to gentle winds remain elsewhere. Seas of 4-6 ft
prevail across the area. Scattered moderate convection is noted=20
offshore Colombia and Panama, described in the monsoon=20
trough/ITCZ section above.

For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds will pulse in the=20
Papagayo region tonight through early next week. The strongest=20
winds are expected Fri night through Sun night, with seas=20
building to 9 ft offshore Papagayo Sat night. Fresh N winds will
pulse at night in the Gulf of Panama through Mon night, with=20
strong winds and 7 ft seas possible there Sat night. Light to=20
gentle winds will remain elsewhere.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

Strong high pressure is centered well north of the area with a=20
ridge extending southward over waters north of the ITCZ. The=20
pressure gradient between the high and ITCZ is causing fresh to=20
strong NE to E winds over the open waters N of the ITCZ to 22N=20
and W of 135W. Seas in this area are 9 to 11 ft in mixed NW=20
swell and NE wind waves. Farther to the northeast, a set of=20
northerly swell is causing seas of 8-11 ft north of 23N between=20
119W-133W.

For the forecast, fresh NE to E winds will continue north of the
ITCZ to 22N and west of 130W through tonight before diminishing.
Seas over the area south of 20N and west of 130W are forecast to
remain 8-10 ft through Fri night, subsiding to 7-9 ft Sat. Seas=20
over the northern swell area will subside to below 10 ft tonight.

$$
Hagen


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