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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Moderate Tropical Storm 6 (fezile) 
Message-ID: <20220218011908.75A081C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Fri, 18 Feb 2022 01:19:08 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 180059
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/6/20212022
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (FEZILE)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/18 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.0 S / 87.5 E
(TWENTY FOUR    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY SEVEN    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 15 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 981 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 520 SE: 650 SW: 370 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 295 SE: 350 SW: 185 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1002 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/18 12 UTC: 27.3 S / 86.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 510 SE: 530 SW: 335 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 315 SW: 215 NW: 185

24H: 2022/02/19 00 UTC: 31.3 S / 86.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 575 SE: 705 SW: 345 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 295 SE: 435 SW: 230 NW: 220
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 150

36H: 2022/02/19 12 UTC: 34.8 S / 87.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 535 SE: 620 SW: 445 NW: 360
34 KT NE: 270 SE: 400 SW: 305 NW: 260
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 95

48H: 2022/02/20 00 UTC: 37.6 S / 89.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 575 SE: 465 SW: 400 NW: 345
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 325 SW: 230 NW: 220

60H: 2022/02/20 12 UTC: 39.9 S / 95.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 565 SE: 360 SW: 345 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 270 SE: 270 SW: 205 NW: 175


2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.0

DURING THE LAST 12 HOURS, SYSTEM 06'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS EVOLVED FROM
A MONSOON DEPRESSION STRUCTURE TO A MORE ORGANIZED STRUCTURE CLOSER
TO A CLASSICAL TROPICAL SYSTEM. SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A LARGE
CURVED BAND WITH MARKED CONVECTION IN THE EAST/SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE.
1515Z AND 1602Z ASCAT PASSES SHOW GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE WHOLE OF
THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTORS OF THE CIRCULATION WITH LOCAL PEAKS
AT 40 KT. A 1203Z SMAP PASS INDICATES WINDS OF 40 TO LOCALLY 45 KT IN
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CIRCULATION. FINALLY, A PRESSURE OF 982.5 HPA
WAS MEASURED BY BUOY 5601666 (24.3S/88.0E) SUGGESTING
INTENSIFICATION. FOR THESE REASONS, MAURITIUS METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE
NAMED THIS SYSTEM FEZILE AT 2330Z, WHICH BECOMES THE SIXTH NAMED
STORM OF THE SEASON OVER THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN.

NO CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST : FEZILE IS MOVING ON THE WESTERN
EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE SYSTEM SHOULD QUICKLY TRACK SOUTHWARD
DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS, GRADUALLY ABSORBED BY THE MID-LATITUDES
CIRCULATION.

FEZILE HAS TAKEN ADVANTAGE OF A NARROW WINDOW OF INTENSIFICATION TO
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM. BUT FROM THIS FRIDAY, ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE DETERIORATING AS THE SYSTEM PASSES 30S (COLDER SST,
INCREASING WIND SHEAR), LEADING TO GRADUAL EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION.

THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY FAR FROM ANY INHABITED LANDS.=

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