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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Tropical Disturbance 4 (dumako) 
Message-ID: <20220218013451.A123D1C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Fri, 18 Feb 2022 01:34:51 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 180119
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/4/20212022
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 4 (DUMAKO)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/18 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.1 S / 38.7 E
(EIGHTEEN    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY EIGHT    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/D 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/18 12 UTC: 18.0 S / 37.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 0

24H: 2022/02/19 00 UTC: 17.3 S / 35.6 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

36H: 2022/02/19 12 UTC: 16.3 S / 34.5 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT,
DISSIPATING


2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.0

DURING THE LAST 12 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REMAINED MODERATE, WITH
A RATHER ILL-DEFINED CURVED BAND. THE 1839Z AND 1926Z ASCAT PASSES
ENABLE TO LOCATE THE CENTER OF DUMAKO IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND SHOW WINDS OF 25KT IN THE SOUTHERN PART
OF THE SYSTEM, VERY LOCALLY 30KT UNDER CONVECTION.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, DUMAKO IS DRIVEN BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, LEADING
IT TOWARDS LANDFALL ON THE COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING, NEAR QUELIMANE. ONCE OVER LAND, DUMAKO WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK WEST TO NORTHWEST AS IT DISSIPATES.

DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND WEAK WIND
SHEAR, THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE LIMITS INTENSIFICATION
POTENTIAL. NEVERTHELESS, DUMAKO COULD REACH THE STAGE OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION BEFORE LANDFALL. THEREAFTER, THE INTENSITY WILL WEAKEN
VERY QUICKLY OVER LAND.

EXPECTED IMPACTS ON MOZAMBIQUE :
- THE DETERIORATION OF THE METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS IS ESSENTIALLY
RAINY ON THE MOZAMBICAN COAST. HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED DURING THE
LANDFALL OF DUMAKO ON THE REGION OF QUELIMANE. ACCUMULATIONS OVER 12
HOURS OF ABOUT 150MM ARE LIKELY AND WILL PERSIST UNTIL SATURDAY OVER
QUELIMANE AREA, EXTENDING TOWARDS THE BEIRA AREA OVERNIGHT.
- NEAR GALE THRESHOLD CAN BE EXPECTED LOCALLY ALONG THE COAST.

THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT WARRANT REGULAR MONITORING. NEXT ADVISORY AT
12UTC UNLESS SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION IS NOTED.=

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