Received-SPF: pass (google.com: domain of wx-tropl-owner@lists.illinois.edu designates 148.163.135.28 as permitted sender) client-ip=148.163.135.28;
From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Severe Tropical Storm 5 (emnati) 
Message-ID: <20220218015400.C2DA41C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Fri, 18 Feb 2022 01:54:00 +0000
MIME-Version: 1.0
Reply-To: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Errors-to: wx-tropl-owner@lists.illinois.edu
Precedence: list
Precedence: bulk
Content-type: multipart/mixed; boundary="----------=_1645149244-112669-1231"

This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

------------=_1645149244-112669-1231
Content-Type: text/plain

WTIO30 FMEE 180135
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/5/20212022
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (EMNATI)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/18 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.9 S / 63.1 E
(THIRTEEN    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY THREE    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 22 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 150 SW: 240 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 55 SW: 95 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 0 SW: 40 NW: 35

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1002 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/18 12 UTC: 14.6 S / 61.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 370 SW: 305 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 220 SW: 140 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 45 SW: 75 NW: 65

24H: 2022/02/19 00 UTC: 15.7 S / 60.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 360 SW: 370 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 215 SW: 150 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

36H: 2022/02/19 12 UTC: 16.7 S / 58.6 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 345 SW: 370 NW: 315
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 205 SW: 165 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

48H: 2022/02/20 00 UTC: 17.4 S / 57.3 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 435 SW: 400 NW: 325
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 270 SW: 175 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 120
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55

60H: 2022/02/20 12 UTC: 17.9 S / 56.0 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 405 SW: 390 NW: 360
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 250 SW: 215 NW: 205
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 75 SW: 95 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65

72H: 2022/02/21 00 UTC: 18.1 S / 54.7 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 400 SW: 390 NW: 370
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 240 SW: 260 NW: 220
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 130
64 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SW: 85 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/22 00 UTC: 18.7 S / 51.4 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 425 SW: 305 NW: 295
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 260 SW: 205 NW: 195
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 130
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 75

120H: 2022/02/23 00 UTC: 19.8 S / 47.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 240 SW: 95 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SW: 65 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 50 NW: 80

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTION HAS REMAINED PARTICULARLY STRONG
WITH VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE CENTER. THE CLOUD PATTERN SEAMS TO
BE LESS AFFECTED BY WIND SHEAR WITH A NICE CURVED BAND WRAPPING WEST,
NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE (ADT, SATCON) HAVE
SLIGHTLY INCREASED SINCE THURSDAY EVENING. INTENSITY IS THEREFORE
UPGRADED TO 50 KT. MOREOVER, 1659Z AND 1746Z ASCAT PASSES SHOW THAT
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE NOW PRESENT IN ALL SECTORS OF THE CIRCULATION,
INDICATING IT IS BECOMING MORE SYMMETRICAL.

EMNATI IS NOW STARTING A SOUTH-WESTERN TURN UNDER THE EFFECT OF
STRENGTHENING GEOPOTENTIALS TO THE SOUTH-EAST AND NORTH-EAST OF THE
SYSTEM. THE GENERAL MOVEMENT WILL NEVERTHELESS REMAIN DRIVEN
PRIMARILY BY THE MID-TROPOSPHERE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH REMAINS WELL
ESTABLISHED, UNDER A MORE ELEVATED STEERING FLOW AS THE SYSTEM
INTENSIFIES. THE FORECAST TRACK, BASED ON A MEDIAN SCENARIO, FAVOURS
A PASSAGE CLOSE TO SAINT-BRANDON AND THEN IN THE NORTHERN SECTOR OF
THE GREAT MASCARENE ISLANDS, BUT AT A STILL UNCERTAIN DISTANCE
(250-300 KM NORTH OF MAURITIUS, 300-350 KM NORTH OF REUNION ISLAND
BUT WITH AN UNCERTAINTY OF MORE OR LESS 150-200 KM) FROM SUNDAY OR
MONDAY, THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE WEAKENS A LITTLE AND THE SYSTEM IS
MORE CLEARLY STEERED WESTWARDS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE, DIRECTING IT TOWARDS MADAGASCAR, BUT WITH FAIRLY HIGH
DISPERSION IN CONNECTION WITH POSSIBLE WEAKNESSES IN THE RIDGE WHICH
COULD ATTRACT IT MORE OR LESS SOUTHWARD.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE STILL A BIT
SHEARED FOR THE NEXT 24H (THE FAST MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE SHEAR ATTENUATING A BIT ITS INFLUENCE), FAVORING
SLOW DEVELOPMENT. GOOD OCEANIC POTENTIAL THEN THE GRADUAL APPROACH OF
THE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE'S AXIS THIS WEEKEND WITH
VERY GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE SHOULD ALLOW MORE ENHANCED INTENSIFICATION
AS EMNATI APPROACHES TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT MASCARENE ISLANDS,
POTENTIALLY AT INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE. NEVERTHELESS, THE
EVENTUAL OCCURRENCE OF AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC) COULD LEAD
INTENSITIES DIFFERENT FROM THOSE FORECASTED, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN THE
NORTH OF THE MASCARENES AND THE MALAGASY COAST.

CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE OVER MAURITIUS SATURDAY MORNING THEN
REUNION SATURDAY EVENING WITH AN INCREASING PROBABILITY OF HEAVY
RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS (MOST PROBABLE SCENARIO: NEAR-GALE OR GALE
CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS THAT COULD APPROACH 100 KM/H).
MOREOVER, THE PROBABILITY OF IMPACT IS INCREASING FOR THE EAST COAST
OF MADAGASCAR FROM TUESDAY, WITH A HIGHER RISK BETWEEN TOAMASINA AND
MANANJARA, EVEN IF ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS (ESPECIALLY FURTHER SOUTH)
REMAIN POSSIBLE.
THE INHABITANTS OF THE MASCARENE ISLANDS AND THE EAST COAST OF
MADAGASCAR ARE THUS INVITED TO FOLLOW WITH ATTENTION THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS SYSTEM.=

------------=_1645149244-112669-1231
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
Content-Disposition: inline
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

= = = == = =
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-TROPL.
------------=_1645149244-112669-1231--