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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian Ocean 
Message-ID: <20220218025149.E98651C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Fri, 18 Feb 2022 02:51:49 +0000
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TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
ABIO10 PGTW 180330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/180330Z-181800ZFEB2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/180151ZFEB2022//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/180251ZFEB2022//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 18FEB22 0000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EMNATI) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 13.4S 63.0E, APPROXIMATELY 518 NM NORTHEAST OF PORT
LOUIS, MAURITIU, AND HAD TRACKED WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE
ESTIMATED AT 55 KNOTS GUSTING TO 70 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW
180300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 20.7S 88.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 24.6S 87.4E, APPROXIMATELY
917NM SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 180047Z SSMIS 91GHZ PARTIAL MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICT LARGE FRONTAL BANDING  ON THE EASTERN PORTION OF A
BROAD, POORLY-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINAL DEVELOPMENT WITH ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW
AND WARM (27-28C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) OFFSET BY MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KTS). ADDITIONALLY, THE SYSTEM WILL SOON
BE ENTERING SSTS LESS THAN 26C. GLOBAL MODELS TO INCLUDE GFS, ECMWF,
AND NAVGEM ARE IN AGREEMENT TRACKING THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD OVER THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AND BEGINNING SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT
ENTERS THE MID-LATITUDES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 997 MB. IN VIEW OF THE UNFAVORABLE FORECAST FOR THIS
SYSTEM, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO MEDIUM. SEE REF B


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