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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Severe Tropical Storm 5 (emnati) 
Message-ID: <20220218071932.9185B1C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Fri, 18 Feb 2022 07:19:32 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 180717
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/5/20212022
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (EMNATI)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/18 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.0 S / 62.6 E
(FOURTEEN    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY TWO    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 980 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 150 SW: 240 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 95 SW: 150 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 30 SW: 50 NW: 55

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/18 18 UTC: 15.3 S / 60.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 315 SW: 315 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 165 SW: 165 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 65

24H: 2022/02/19 06 UTC: 16.3 S / 59.1 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 400 SW: 370 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 240 SW: 195 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 35

36H: 2022/02/19 18 UTC: 17.1 S / 57.8 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 480 SW: 390 NW: 325
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 295 SW: 220 NW: 205
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 95 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

48H: 2022/02/20 06 UTC: 17.8 S / 56.5 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 390 SW: 400 NW: 370
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 240 SW: 215 NW: 220
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 100
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

60H: 2022/02/20 18 UTC: 18.2 S / 55.2 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 405 SW: 335 NW: 370
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 260 SW: 240 NW: 230
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 95 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 85 NW: 65

72H: 2022/02/21 06 UTC: 18.3 S / 53.9 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 425 SW: 370 NW: 350
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 270 SW: 250 NW: 230
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 95 SW: 100 NW: 100
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/22 06 UTC: 19.2 S / 50.5 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 380 SW: 230 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 240 SW: 165 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 120
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 65

120H: 2022/02/23 06 UTC: 20.9 S / 46.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CONFIGURATION OF EMNATI HAS CHANGED
LITTLE: THE CURVED BAND STRUCTURE IS MAINTAINED. THE AVAILABILITY OF
THE GPM IMAGE OF 0104UTC ALLOWS HOWEVER TO NOTE AN IMPROVEMENT IN THE
STRUCTURE OF LOW LAYERS. THE DVORAK ANAYLSE CAN THEREFORE BE RAISED
TO 4.0 DEFINING MEAN WINDS OF ABOUT 55KT. THE 0453UTC ASCAT SWATH
SATURATES WITH VALUES AT 45KT. EMNATI IS STILL AT THE STAGE OF A
STRONG TROPICAL STORM BUT ITS INTENSITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE UNDER A
SLIGHT WEATHER CONSTRAINT.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK, EMNATI CONTINUES ITS SOUTH-WESTERN
TRACK UNDER THE EFFECT OF STRENGTHENING GEOPOTENTIALS TO THE
SOUTH-EAST AND NORTH-EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE GENERAL MOVEMENT WILL
NEVERTHELESS BE DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY THE MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WHICH REMAINS IN PLACE, UNDER A STEERING FLOW WHICH IS
MOVING UPWARDS AS THE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES. THIS TRAJECTORY PREDICTED
BY THE RSMC, BASED ON A MEDIAN SCENARIO, FAVOURS A PASSAGE IN THE
IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF SAINT-BRANDON THEN IN THE NORTHERN SECTOR OF
THE MASCARENE ISLANDS. A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WILL INDUCE A SLIGHT INFLECTION TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTH-WEST
DURING THE PASSAGE NEAR THE MASCAREIGNES, INCREASING A LITTLE THE
DISTANCE OF PASSAGE TOWARDS 300KM. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT AT THESE
DISTANCES, THE UNCERTAINTY IS MORE OR LESS 150KM. FROM SUNDAY-MONDAY,
THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE WEAKENS A LITTLE AND THE SYSTEM IS MORE
FRANKLY DIRECTED TOWARDS THE WEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, DIRECTING IT TOWARDS MADAGASCAR WITH A LANDING AT
THE END OF TUESDAY EVENING. BUT WITH A STILL RATHER CONSEQUENT
DISPERSION IN CONNECTION WITH POSSIBLE WEAKNESSES IN THE RIDGE LEAVES
A POSSIBILITY THAT THE SYSTEM MAINTAINS A SOUTHERN ORIENTATION A
LITTLE MORE MARKED.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE STILL A
LITTLE SHEARED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FAVORING A SLOW DEVELOPMENT. A
GOOD OCEANIC POTENTIAL, THEN THE GRADUAL APPROACH OF THE SYSTEM OF
THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE THIS WEEKEND WITH A VERY GOOD DIVERGENCE OF
ALTITUDE, SHOULD ALLOW AN INTENSIFICATION MORE FRANK WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE MASCARENE ISLANDS, POTENTIALLY UNTIL THE STAGE OF
INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE AT THE TIME OF THE PASSAGE NEAR THE ISLANDS.
NEVERTHELESS, THE POSSIBLE OCCURRENCE OF A REPLACEMENT CYCLE OF THE
EYEWALL COULD LEAD TO INTENSITIES DIFFERENT FROM THOSE FORECASTED,
ESPECIALLY BETWEEN THE NORTHERN MASCARENE ISLANDS AND THE MALAGASY
COAST.

IN TERMS OF IMPACTS, CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE ON MAURITIUS
SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN ON REUNION SATURDAY EVENING WITH HEAVY
RAINS AND STRONG WINDS, LEAVING GUSTS APPROACHING 110KM/H ON THE
COAST AND 130KM/H ON THE HEIGHTS, ESPECIALLY ON REUNION.
MOREOVER, THE IMPACT AREA ON THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR FROM
TUESDAY IS FOCUSED BETWEEN TAMATAVE AND MANANJARA, EVEN IF
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS (ESPECIALLY FURTHER SOUTH) REMAIN POSSIBLE.
THE INHABITANTS OF THE MASCAREIGNES AND THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR
ARE INVITED TO FOLLOW WITH ATTENTION THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM.=

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