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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Moderate Tropical Storm 6 (fezile) 
Message-ID: <20220218073804.2D1561C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Fri, 18 Feb 2022 07:38:04 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 180736
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/6/20212022
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (FEZILE)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/18 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.3 S / 87.1 E
(TWENTY FIVE    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY SEVEN    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 14 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 980 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 520 SE: 650 SW: 370 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 295 SE: 350 SW: 185 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1002 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/18 18 UTC: 29.4 S / 86.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 520 SE: 630 SW: 405 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 295 SE: 380 SW: 295 NW: 140

24H: 2022/02/19 06 UTC: 33.5 S / 87.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 535 SE: 650 SW: 425 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 315 SE: 405 SW: 315 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SW: 130 NW: 55

36H: 2022/02/19 18 UTC: 36.8 S / 89.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 555 SE: 665 SW: 455 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 325 SE: 425 SW: 335 NW: 140

48H: 2022/02/20 06 UTC: 39.0 S / 93.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 575 SE: 685 SW: 480 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 345 SE: 455 SW: 350 NW: 140

60H: 2022/02/20 18 UTC: 41.5 S / 99.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 595 SE: 705 SW: 500 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 350 SE: 470 SW: 370 NW: 140


2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE FELIZE CLOUD PATTERN IS PROGRESSIVELY
MIGRATING FROM A CURVED BAND PATTERN TO A SHEAR SYSTEM. THE CLOUD
TOPS ARE CLEARLY WARMING CONFIRMING THE WEAKENING OF THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY DUE TO THE SHEAR AND THE MIGRATION TOWARDS A POST-TROPICAL
STRUCTURE. A DVORAK ANALYSIS OF 2.5 IS STILL POSSIBLE BUT THE WIND
ESTIMATE IS INCREASED TO 40KT DUE TO THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT OF THE
SYSTEM AND THE INFLUENCE OF THE GRADIENT TO THE SOUTH.

NO CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST: FEZILE IS EVOLVING ON THE WESTERN
EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
APPROACHING PROGRESSIVELY FROM THE WEST. THE SYSTEM SHOULD QUICKLY
EVACUATE SOUTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS BY INTEGRATING THE
CIRCULATION OF THE TEMPERATE LATITUDES.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE DETERIORATING FROM THIS FRIDAY ONWARDS
AS IT APPROACHES 30S (COLDER WATERS, STRONG INCREASE IN SHEAR).
FEZILE WILL PROGRESSIVELY EVOLVE TOWARDS A POST-TROPICAL STRUCTURE
BEFORE STARTING AN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AT THE END OF SUNDAY.

THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY FAR FROM ANY INHABITED LAND.=

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