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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220218085516.2E2761C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Fri, 18 Feb 2022 08:55:16 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 180855
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri Feb 18 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0815 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Light to gentle winds with seas
of 4 ft or less will prevail across the Gulf of Tehuantepec=20
OVERNIGHT. Strong high pressure will build north of the region
Fri, behind a cold front currently moving across the Gulf of=20
Mexico. Strong northerly winds will spill across the Gulf of=20
Tehuantepec late Fri morning. Winds will increase to gale-force=20
late Fri afternoon and continue through early Sun morning. Seas=20
will build to 12 ft by Fri night and then again Sat night before
quickly subsiding on Sun after the gale-force winds end. Refer=20
to the NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane=20
Center at website:=20
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.hurricanes.gov/marine/MIAHSFEP2.sht=
ml__;!!DZ3fjg!r2tYL7IAcZmQO-ZVq0HupI3HlzItW7XTqW72cl3unvNE8p8z9Oi_OrHYTWTNp=
gMjEExbbW8E$  for more=20
details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...=20

A trough extends from 10N74W to 06N79W to 04N100W. The ITCZ=20
extends from 04N100W to 03.5N106W to 07N123W to beyond=20
07.5N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is=20
noted E of 80W to coast of Colombia from 02N to 06N. Scattered=20
moderate convection is noted from 08.5N to 11N between 110W and=20
120W, and from 06.5N to 08N W of 132W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

See the Special Features section for information on the upcoming
Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event.=20

Fresh to locally strong NNW winds prevail across central=20=20
portions of the Gulf of California tonight, where seas are 4-7=20
ft. Moderate N winds are offshore of Baja California and extend=20
southward to offshore of Cabo Corrientes, where fresh winds are=20
occurring near the coast. Seas are 6 to 9 ft in NW to N swell off
Baja California Norte, 6 to 8 ft off Baja California Sur, and 4=20
to 6 ft elsewhere.=20

A mix of moderate NW and N swell will continue across the Baja=20
California offshores through tonight and subside late on Fri.=20
Fresh to locally strong NW winds are expected across the Gulf of=20
California through Fri morning, with moderate to fresh winds then
continuing through Fri night. Seas will continue 4-7 ft there
through midday Fri. Fresh to locally strong winds will occur off
Cabo Corrientes Fri afternoon and evening. Fresh to strong winds
and building seas are possible early next week offshore Baja=20
California Norte and in the northern Gulf of California as a cold
front moves into the area.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and=20
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to locally strong NE winds are occurring offshore the=20
Papagayo region. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds=20
prevail inside the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle winds remain=20
elsewhere. Seas of 3-6 ft prevail across the area. Scattered=20
moderate to strong convection is noted along the coast of=20
Colombia, described in the monsoon trough/ITCZ section above.

Fresh gap winds will pulse to strong at night across the=20
Papagayo region tonight through early next week. The strongest=20
winds are expected Fri night through Sun night, with seas=20
building to 9 ft offshore Papagayo Sat night. Fresh N winds will=20
pulse at night in the Gulf of Panama through Mon night, with=20
strong winds and 7 ft seas possible there Sat night. Light to=20
gentle winds will remain elsewhere.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

Strong high pressure is centered well north of the area with a=20
ridge extending southward over waters W of 130W and north of the
ITCZ. The pressure gradient between the high and ITCZ is
producing fresh to strong NE to E winds over the open waters N=20
of the ITCZ to 25N and W of 125W. Seas in this area are 9 to 11=20
ft in mixed NW swell and NE wind waves. Farther to the northeast,
northerly swell is producing seas of 8-10 ft north of 21N=20
between 118W and 134W.

Fresh NE to E winds will continue north of the ITCZ to 22N and=20
west of 130W through tonight before diminishing. Seas over the=20
area south of 20N and west of 130W are forecast to remain 8-10 ft
through Fri night, subsiding to 7-9 ft Sat. Seas across the NE
waters will subside to below 10 ft by before sunrise and below 8
ft Fri evening.

$$
Stripling


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