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From: <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: RSMC La Reunion Tropical Cyclone Analysis
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Message-ID: <20220218112926.C6A2E1C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Fri, 18 Feb 2022 11:29:26 +0000
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589 
AWIO20 FMEE 181127

TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE

BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN

DATE: 2022/02/18 AT 1200 UTC

PART 1:

WARNING SUMMARY:


Warning WTIO30 FMEE 017/0 issued at 00UTC on Tropical Disturbance DUMAKO.

Warning WTIO20 and WTIO30 FMEE 013/05 issued at 06UTC on Severe Tropical Storm EMNATI.

Warning WTIO20 and WTIO30 FMEE 005/06 issued at 06UTC on Moderate Tropical Storm FEZILE.

Next warnings at 12UTC.

PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:


The monsoon flow remained established over the whole basin. It feeds the two low-pressure areas present east of 60oE. These two tropical low pressure systems concentrate most of the convective activity over the basin. Convective activity is also present on the equatorial side of the monsoon flow and more modestly in the tropical disturbance DUMAKO.

Severe Tropical Storm EMNATI :

Position at 09UTC : 14.1S / 62.2E

Displacement : West-South-West 7 kt

Maximum wind averaged over 10 minutes : 60 kt

Minimum central pressure : 976 hPa
For more information, please refer to the WTIO20 and WTIO30 advisories issued at 06UTC and following.

Moderate Tropical Storm FEZILE:

Position at 09UTC : 26.8S / 86.8E

Displacement : South 19 kt

Maximum wind averaged over 10 minutes : 40 kt

Minimum central pressure : 982 hPa
For more information, please refer to the WTIO20 and WTIO30 advisories issued at 06UTC and following.

Tropical Disturbance DUMAKO :

Position at 11UTC : 18.2S / 36.9E

Displacement : West-South-West 9 kt

Maximum wind averaged over 10 minutes : 25 kt

Minimum central pressure : 1006 hPa
For more information, please refer to the WTIO30 advisory issued at 00UTC and following, to be published at 12UTC.

Development of an other moderate tropical storm is not expected for the next 5 days.


NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of the genesis of a moderate tropical storm over the basin and within the next five days:

Very low:       less than 10%              Moderate:        30% to 60%        Very high:      over 90%
Low:             10% to 30%                  High:               60% to 90%

The Southwestern Indian Ocean basin extends from the equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.

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