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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Moderate Tropical Storm 6 (fezile) 
Message-ID: <20220218121519.4BA651C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Fri, 18 Feb 2022 12:15:19 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 181213
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/6/20212022
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (FEZILE)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/18 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 27.7 S / 86.8 E
(TWENTY SEVEN    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY SIX    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 20 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 982 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 520 SE: 650 SW: 370 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 295 SE: 350 SW: 185 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/19 00 UTC: 31.6 S / 87.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 530 SE: 630 SW: 405 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 295 SE: 380 SW: 295 NW: 140

24H: 2022/02/19 12 UTC: 35.5 S / 88.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 545 SE: 650 SW: 425 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 315 SE: 405 SW: 315 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SW: 130 NW: 55

36H: 2022/02/20 00 UTC: 38.1 S / 91.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 565 SE: 665 SW: 455 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 335 SE: 425 SW: 335 NW: 140

48H: 2022/02/20 12 UTC: 40.4 S / 96.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 595 SE: 685 SW: 480 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 345 SE: 455 SW: 350 NW: 140

60H: 2022/02/21 00 UTC: 43.8 S / 104.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 610 SE: 705 SW: 500 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 360 SE: 470 SW: 370 NW: 140


2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO WARM UP
AND SHOWS A SHEARED STRUCTURE (CONFIRMED BY THE GCOM PASS OF 0809UTC)
REFLECTING THE INCREASE OF THE WIND SHEAR IN RELATION WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH CIRCULATING FURTHER SOUTH. FEZILE IS RESISTING WELL TO THIS
HOSTILE DYNAMIC THANKS TO ITS CLEARLY ACCELERATED DISPLACEMENT. THE
DVORAK ANALYSIS IN SHEAR SYSTEM DOES NOT EVOLVE BUT CLEARLY
UNDERESTIMATES THE 40KT THAT CAN BE ATTRIBUTED TO THE SPEED OF
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM AND THE INFLUENCE OF THE GRADIENT TO THE
SOUTH. FEZILE STILL KEEPING ITS TROPICAL STRUCTURE IS STILL
CLASSIFIED AS A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM.

WITH A SLIGHT ACCELERATION IN THE FORECAST TRACK, FEZILE CONTINUES TO
EVOLVE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND AHEAD OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING PROGRESSIVELY FROM THE WEST. THE
SYSTEM WHICH HAS STARTED ITS ACCELERATION SHOULD QUICKLY EVACUATE
SOUTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS BY INTEGRATING THE CIRCULATION OF
THE MID-LATITUDES.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE DETERIORATING FROM THIS FRIDAY ONWARDS
AS IT APPROACHES 30S (COLDER WATERS, STRONG INCREASE IN SHEAR).
FEZILE WILL PROGRESSIVELY EVOLVE TOWARDS A POST-TROPICAL STRUCTURE
BEFORE STARTING AN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AT THE END OF SUNDAY.

THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY FAR FROM ANY INHABITED LAND.=

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