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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Tropical Cyclone 5 (emnati) 
Message-ID: <20220218125951.3F54D1C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Fri, 18 Feb 2022 12:59:51 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 181251
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/5/20212022
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (EMNATI)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/18 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.5 S / 61.8 E
(FOURTEEN    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY ONE    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 975 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 150 SW: 240 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 95 SW: 150 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 50 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1002 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/19 00 UTC: 15.7 S / 59.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 390 SW: 360 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 230 SW: 195 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 35

24H: 2022/02/19 12 UTC: 16.7 S / 58.4 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 445 SW: 370 NW: 325
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 280 SW: 175 NW: 205
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45

36H: 2022/02/20 00 UTC: 17.6 S / 57.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 415 SW: 390 NW: 345
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 260 SW: 215 NW: 215
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 85 NW: 100
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 65

48H: 2022/02/20 12 UTC: 18.1 S / 55.8 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 390 SW: 425 NW: 380
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 240 SW: 280 NW: 230
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SW: 95 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 85 NW: 65

60H: 2022/02/21 00 UTC: 18.4 S / 54.4 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 415 SW: 380 NW: 360
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 260 SW: 260 NW: 230
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 140
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 95 NW: 75

72H: 2022/02/21 12 UTC: 18.6 S / 53.0 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 425 SW: 350 NW: 335
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 270 SW: 240 NW: 220
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 75

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/22 12 UTC: 19.9 S / 49.2 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 380 SW: 110 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 240 SW: 85 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 100
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 55

120H: 2022/02/23 12 UTC: 22.1 S / 45.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5-

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED UP AND THE CURVED
BAND PATTERN OF EMNATI HAS BEEN MAINTAINED IN INFRARED IMAGES. A
BANDED EYE COULD ALSO BE NOTED SINCE THE PREVIOUS WARNING LEAVING A
DVORAK ANALYSIS AT THE LOWER THRESHOLD OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE
AMSR2 MICROWAVE DATA FROM 0951UTC ALLOW TO LOCATE MORE PRECISELY THE
CENTER OF EMNATI AND THUS TO VALIDATE THE SLIGHT SOUTH-WESTERN
DIRECTION TAKEN RECENTLY. AT THIS STAGE, EMNATI IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITH WINDS ESTIMATED AT 65KT IN MEAN WIND.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRAJECTORY, EMNATI CONTINUES ITS
SOUTH-WESTERN TRACK UNDER THE EFFECT OF STRENGTHENING GEOPOTENTIALS
TO THE SOUTH-EAST AND NORTH-EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE GENERAL MOVEMENT
WILL NEVERTHELESS REMAIN DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY THE MID-TROPOSPHERE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH REMAINS WELL IN PLACE. THIS TRACK FORECASTED
BY THE RSMC, BASED ON A MEDIUM SCENARIO, FAVORS A PASSAGE IN THE
IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF SAINT-BRANDON THEN IN THE NORTHERN SECTOR OF
THE MASCAREIGNES. A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
WILL INDUCE A SLIGHT INFLECTION TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTH-WEST DURING
THE PASSAGE AT THE LPUS NEAR THE MASCAREIGNES, INCREASING A LITTLE
THE DISTANCE OF PASSAGE TOWARDS 280KM. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT AT
THESE DISTANCES, THE UNCERTAINTY IS MORE OR LESS 120KM. THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES THEN ITS TRAJECTORY IN DIRECTION OF MADAGASCAR THAT IT WILL
REACH AT THE END OF TUESDAY DURING THE DAY (SLIGHTLY EARLIER THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST).

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE STILL A BIT
SHEARED, FAVORING A SLOW DEVELOPMENT. THEN FROM SATURDAY, A GOOD
OCEANIC POTENTIAL, THE GRADUAL APPROACH OF THE SYSTEM OF THE AXIS OF
THE RIDGE DEFINING A WEAKENING OF THE SHEAR AND A VERY GOOD
DIVERGENCE OF ALTITUDE, SHOULD ALLOW AN INTENSIFICATION MORE FRANK
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MASCAREIGNES, POTENTIALLY UNTIL THE STAGE OF
INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE AT THE TIME OF THE PASSAGE NEAR THE ISLANDS.
THE PRESENT RSMC FORECAST TAKES INTO ACCOUNT THE POSSIBLE OCCURRENCE
OF A REPLACEMENT CYCLE OF THE EYEWALL, THE PRECISE TIMING OF WHICH
REMAINS DIFFICULT TO PREDICT. THIS ONE COULD LEAD TO INTENSITIES
DIFFERENT FROM THOSE FORECASTED, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN THE NORTH OF THE
MASCAREIGNES AND THE MALAGASY COAST.

IN TERMS OF IMPACTS, CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE ON MAURITIUS
SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN ON REUNION SATURDAY EVENING WITH HEAVY
RAINS AND STRONG WINDS, LEAVING GUSTS APPROACHING 110KM/H ON THE
COAST AND 130KM/H ON THE HEIGHTS, ESPECIALLY ON REUNION.
MOREOVER, THE IMPACT AREA ON THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR FROM
TUESDAY IS FOCUSED BETWEEN TAMATAVE AND MANANJARA, EVEN IF
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS (ESPECIALLY FURTHER SOUTH) REMAIN POSSIBLE.
THE INHABITANTS OF THE MASCAREIGNES AND THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR
ARE INVITED TO FOLLOW WITH ATTENTION THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM.=

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