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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Tropical Disturbance 4 (dumako) 
Message-ID: <20220218130735.995CD1C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Fri, 18 Feb 2022 13:07:35 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 181247
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 18/4/20212022
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 4 (DUMAKO)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/18 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.1 S / 36.6 E
(EIGHTEEN    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY SIX    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/S 0.0/0 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1006 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/19 00 UTC: 17.1 S / 35.1 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

24H: 2022/02/19 12 UTC: 16.1 S / 33.9 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION


2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.0

DURING THE LAST 12 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REMAINED MODERATE,
FORMING EVEN A TEMPORARY CURVED BAND WHILE LANDING NEAR QUELIMANE
AROUND 10Z. LAST ASCAT AND HY-2B PASSES SHOW THE PERSISTENCE OF 25KT
WIND IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

TROUGH THE WEEK-END, DUMAKO WILL PROGRESSIVELY DISAPPEAR OVERLAND,
WHILE MOVING NORTH-WESTWARD. IT SHOULD STILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS FROM
QUELIMANE UP TO THE NORTHERN MOZAMBIQUE, NEAR THE BORDER WITH THE
MALAWI. 150 MM IN 24H ARE STILL LIKELY LOCALLY.

THIS IS THE LAST WTIO20 WARNING ON DUMAKO. THE SYSTEM WILL STILL BE
MONITORED WITH THE DAILY AWIO20 BULLETIN.=

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