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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220218154648.08F1B1C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Fri, 18 Feb 2022 15:46:47 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 181545
TWDEP=20

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri Feb 18 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure building across
the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains will support the
next gap wind event across the Tehuantepec region. Strong northerly
winds will spill across the Gulf of Tehuantepec this afternoon
with seas building to 8 ft. Winds will increase to gale-force by
this evening and continue through Sun morning. Seas will build=20
to 12 ft before quickly subsiding on Sun afternoon after the=20
gale-force winds end. Refer to the NWS High Seas Forecast issued
by the National Hurricane Center at website:

https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.hurricanes.gov/marine/MIAHSFEP2.sht=
ml__;!!DZ3fjg!oz0_GL2XFAFprIo2USrN0ioZGPZBrLFB1oopXQJ3DKFcrRVVR1gLe2aRuJnU-=
wRa8hdESkVM$  for more=20
details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...=20

A trough extends from 09N80W to 07N90W to 04N100W. The ITCZ extends
from 04N100W to 07N120W beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted from 01N-06N E of 80W to coast of Colombia
Similar convection is observed from 06N-10N W of 135W.=20

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

See the Special Features section for information on the upcoming
Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event.=20

A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California
producing moderate to locally fresh northerly winds. Seas are 6
to 8 ft in NW swell off Baja California Norte, and 5 to 7 ft off
Baja California Sur. High pressure over the Great Basin of US
supports fresh to locally strong NW winds mainly over the central
Gulf of California.=20

Long period NW swell will continue across the Baja California=20
offshores through tonight. Fresh to locally strong NW winds are=20
expected across the Gulf of California through tonight. Seas=20
will continue 4-6 ft there through this afternoon before=20
subsiding. Fresh to locally strong winds will occur off Cabo=20
Corrientes through this evening. Fresh to strong winds and=20
building seas are possible early next week offshore Baja=20
California Norte and in the northern Gulf of California as a=20
cold front moves into the area.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and=20
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to locally strong NE winds are occurring offshore the=20
Papagayo region. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds=20
prevail inside the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle winds remain=20
elsewhere. Seas of 3-6 ft prevail across the area. Scattered=20
moderate to strong convection is noted along the coast of=20
Colombia, described in the monsoon trough/ITCZ section above.

Fresh gap winds will pulse to strong at night across the=20
Papagayo region tonight through early next week. The strongest=20
winds are expected tonight through Sun night, with seas building
to 10 ft offshore Papagayo Sun morning. Fresh N winds will pulse
at night in the Gulf of Panama through Mon night, with strong=20
winds and 7 ft seas possible there Sat night. Light to gentle=20
winds will remain elsewhere.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

Strong high pressure of 1036 mb is centered well north of the=20
area with a ridge extending SE beyond the Revillagigedo Islands
and north of the ITCZ. The pressure gradient between the high=20
and ITCZ is producing fresh to strong NE to E winds over the open
waters N of the ITCZ to 20N and W of 130W. Seas in this area are
9 to 11 ft in mixed NW swell and NE wind waves. Farther to the=20
north NW is producing seas of 8-10 ft north of 20N W of 120N. An=20
altimeter pass confirmed these sea heights.

Fresh NE to E winds will continue north of the ITCZ to 20N and=20
west of 130W through tonight before diminishing. Seas over the=20
area south of 20N and west of 130W are forecast to remain 8-10 ft
through Fri night, subsiding to 7-9 ft Sat. Seas across the NE=20
waters will subside to below 10 ft by before sunrise and below 8=20
ft Fri evening.

$$
GR/MT


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