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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian 
Message-ID: <20220218182229.3F0AF1C0087@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Fri, 18 Feb 2022 18:22:29 +0000
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TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
ABIO10 PGTW 181800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/181800Z-191800ZFEB2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/181351ZFEB2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 18FEB22 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EMNATI) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 14.4S 61.3E, APPROXIMATELY 412 NM NORTHEAST OF PORT
LOUIS, MAURITIUS, AND HAD TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE
ESTIMATED AT 75 KNOTS GUSTING TO 90 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW
181500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION
(INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 25.4S 86.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR
27.7S 86.9E, APPROXIMATELY 1520 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PERTH,
AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AN
181316Z SSMIS 91GHZ BULLSEYE MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). FURTHER SATELLITE ANALYSIS
REVEALS INVEST 97S IS SHOWING FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT HAS
BEGUN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. A 171542Z ASCAT-B PASS SHOWS A
SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LLCC SURROUNDED BY AN EXPANSIVE WIND FIELD WITH
40 KTS INDICATED IN ALL QUADRANTS WITH SPOTTY AREAS OF 45 KTS.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINAL DEVELOPMENT WITH ROBUST
POLEWARD OUTFLOW BEING OFFSET AS INVEST 97S CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO
AREAS OF MODERATE TO HIGH WIND SHEAR (20-30KTS) AND COOLER SEAS (25-
26C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 97S WILL TRANSIT TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AS AN EXTRA-TOPICAL SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 40 TO 45 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 986 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN


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