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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Post-tropical Depression 6 (ex-fezile) 
Message-ID: <20220218183147.348E31C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Fri, 18 Feb 2022 18:31:46 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 181830
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/6/20212022
1.A POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 6 (EX-FEZILE)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/18 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 30.3 S / 86.6 E
(THIRTY    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY SIX    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 23 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 980 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 610 SE: 650 SW: 480 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 480 SE: 480 SW: 260 NW: 240

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/19 06 UTC: 33.5 S / 87.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 665 SE: 650 SW: 405 NW: 360
34 KT NE: 370 SE: 445 SW: 280 NW: 280
48 KT NE: 155 SE: 150 SW: 95 NW: 140

24H: 2022/02/19 18 UTC: 37.0 S / 89.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 595 SE: 545 SW: 470 NW: 400
34 KT NE: 315 SE: 400 SW: 325 NW: 280

36H: 2022/02/20 06 UTC: 39.5 S / 93.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 595 SE: 415 SW: 315 NW: 315
34 KT NE: 315 SE: 325 SW: 230 NW: 215

48H: 2022/02/20 18 UTC: 42.5 S / 100.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 620 SE: 530 SW: 405 NW: 415
34 KT NE: 315 SE: 405 SW: 285 NW: 295


2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT FEZILE IS
INCREASINGLY INTERACTING WITH A BRANCH OF THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLY
JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVELS TROUGH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THE 1540Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A MUCH LESS SYMMETRIC
CIRCULATION THAN 24 HOURS AGO ASSOCIATED WITH A MUCH MORE DISPARATE
DEEP CONVECTION. FEZILE HAS STARTED ITS EXTRATROPICALIZATION PROCESS
WITH A BAROCLINIC PROCESS IN MAINTAINING THE CIRCULATION. THIS ONE
REMAINS WELL MARKED ON THE SURFACE WITH WINDS 35-40 KT ON THE ASCAT
(PARTIAL) BUT REACHING 45-50 KT ON THE SMAP PASS OF 1239Z. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 45 KT WITH THESE DATA. THIS
QUALIFICATION AS A POST-TROPICAL SYSTEM HAS EARNED IT THE NAME
EX-FEZILE.

NO CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST: THE SYSTEM WHICH HAS STARTED ITS
ACCELERATION SHOULD QUICKLY EVACUATE SOUTHWARD THEN SOUTHEASTWARD
DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS BY INTEGRATING THE MID-LAT WESTERLIES.

THE ONGOING BAROCLINIC INTERACTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THE
WIND WITHIN THE CIRCULATION WITH THE LIKELY DEVELOPMENT OF STORM
FORCE WINDS OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. WITH THE EVACUATION OF THE
UPPER TROUGH DURING THE NIGHT OF SATURDAY TO SUNDAY, THE BAROCLINIC
INTERACTION TENDS TO FADE AND THE WINDS START TO DECREASE WHILE THE
WIND FIELD STRUCTURE BECOMES FRONTAL (EXTRATROPICALIZATION PROCESS
EXPECTED TO BE COMPLETE ON SUNDAY).

THIS IS THE LAST BULLETIN ON THIS SYSTEM WHICH CONTINUES TO BE
FOLLOWED BY THE SMDSM FQIO26 BULLETIN ISSUED BY THE MAURITIUS
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.=

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