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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Tropical Cyclone 5 (emnati) 
Message-ID: <20220218191712.1EADD1C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Fri, 18 Feb 2022 19:17:12 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 181856
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 15/5/20212022
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (EMNATI)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/18 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.4 S / 60.9 E
(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.5/D 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 975 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 26 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 425 SW: 370 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 165 SW: 130 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 75 SW: 70 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1002 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/19 06 UTC: 16.4 S / 59.3 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 470 SW: 405 NW: 295
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 250 SW: 195 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 35

24H: 2022/02/19 18 UTC: 17.2 S / 57.7 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 510 SW: 390 NW: 315
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 280 SW: 185 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 100
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

36H: 2022/02/20 06 UTC: 17.7 S / 56.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 480 SW: 350 NW: 325
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 260 SW: 165 NW: 195
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 100
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 65

48H: 2022/02/20 18 UTC: 18.1 S / 55.2 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 480 SW: 370 NW: 370
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 260 SW: 230 NW: 220
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 100
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 75

60H: 2022/02/21 06 UTC: 18.4 S / 53.8 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 510 SW: 415 NW: 345
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 280 SW: 260 NW: 215
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 85 SW: 110 NW: 100
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 65

72H: 2022/02/21 18 UTC: 18.8 S / 52.2 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 510 SW: 370 NW: 325
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 280 SW: 240 NW: 215
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 95 SW: 110 NW: 120
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 75

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/22 18 UTC: 20.0 S / 48.5 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 470 SW: 140 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 260 SW: 85 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 75 SW: 45 NW: 45

120H: 2022/02/23 18 UTC: 22.5 S / 44.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 315 SW: 400 NW: 230

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.0 CI=4.5-

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, EMNATI HAS PRESENTED AN EMBEDDED CENTER
CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH VERY COLD TOPS NEAR THE CENTER. OVERALL
THE CLOUD STRUCTURE IS SLIGHTLY DEGRADED COMPARED TO WHAT IT WAS A
FEW HOURS EARLIER. MICROWAVE IMAGERY (SSMIS AROUND 12Z AND 15Z THEN
AMSUB METOP AROUND 1730Z) SHOWS THAT THE BANDED EYE STRUCTURE FORMED
AROUND 12Z HAS ERODED RECENTLY UNDER THE LIKELY STILL SIGNIFICANT
EFFECT OF THE EASTERLY SHEAR. THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS UNCHANGED IN
AGREEMENT WITH DVORAK'S SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES AND IN COMPROMISE
BETWEEN SATCON AND SMAP/SMOS AT 55-60 KT (10-MIN WINDS) AND ADT/AIDT
AT ABOUT 70 KT.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK, EMNATI CONTINUES ITS MOTION TOWARDS
THE SOUTH-WEST UNDER THE EFFECT OF THE STRENGTHENING OF THE
GEOPOTENTIALS TO THE SOUTH-EAST AND NORTH-EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE
GENERAL MOVEMENT WILL NEVERTHELESS REMAIN DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY THE
MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE WHICH REMAINS WELL IN PLACE. THIS TRACK
PREDICTED BY THE RSMC, BASED ON A MEDIAN SCENARIO, FAVORS A PASSAGE
IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF SAINT-BRANDON THEN IN THE NORTHERN
SECTOR OF THE MASCAREIGNES. NOTE THAT THE TWO REFERENCE MODELS HAVE
BEEN PRESENTING SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT SCENARIOS FOR SEVERAL RUNS:
MORE SOUTH-WESTERLY FOR GFS WITH A STEERING FLOW PROBABLY MORE
INFLUENCED BY THE 400 HPA WHILE IFS, WITH A LESS INTENSE SYSTEM, HAS
A SIGNIFICANTLY MORE NORTHWARD TRACK. THE RSMC SCENARIO REMAINS ON A
COMPROMISE (CLOSE TO THE TRACK PREDICTED BY AROME) BUT THIS NUANCE
INDICATES A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY ON THE IMPACTS FOR THE
MASCAREIGNES (WORST CASE SCANRIO ON THE GFS TRAJECTORY).

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE STILL A
LITTLE BIT SHEARED FAVORING A SLOW DEVELOPMENT. THEN FROM SATURDAY, A
GOOD OCEANIC POTENTIAL, THE GRADUAL APPROACH OF THE SYSTEM OF THE
AXIS OF THE RIDGE DEFINING A WEAKENING OF THE SHEAR AND A VERY GOOD
DIVERGENCE OF ALTITUDE, SHOULD ALLOW AN INTENSIFICATION MORE FRANK
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MASCAREIGNES, POTENTIALLY UNTIL THE STAGE OF
INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE AT THE TIME OF THE PASSAGE CLOSE TO THE
ISLANDS. THE PRESENT RSMC FORECAST TAKES INTO ACCOUNT THE POSSIBLE
OCCURRENCE OF A REPLACEMENT CYCLE OF THE EYEWALL, THE PRECISE
CHRONOLOGY OF WHICH REMAINS DIFFICULT TO PREDICT. THIS COULD LEAD TO
INTENSITIES DIFFERENT FROM THOSE FORECAST, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN THE
NORTHERN MASCAREIGNES AND THE MALAGASY COAST.

IN TERMS OF IMPACTS, CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE ON MAURITIUS
SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN ON REUNION SATURDAY EVENING WITH HEAVY
RAINS AND STRONG WINDS, LEAVING GUSTS APPROACHING 110KM/H ON THE
COAST AND 130KM/H ON THE HEIGHTS, ESPECIALLY ON REUNION.

MOREOVER, THE IMPACT AREA ON THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR FROM
TUESDAY IS FOCUSED BETWEEN TAMATAVE AND MANANJARA, EVEN IF
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS (ESPECIALLY FURTHER SOUTH) REMAIN POSSIBLE.
THE INHABITANTS OF THE MASCAREIGNES AND THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR
ARE INVITED TO FOLLOW WITH ATTENTION THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM.=

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