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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Tropical Cyclone 5 (emnati) 
Message-ID: <20220219010534.714061C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sat, 19 Feb 2022 01:05:34 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 190041
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 16/5/20212022
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (EMNATI)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/19 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.7 S / 59.8 E
(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY NINE    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.5/D 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 973 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 26 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 425 SW: 370 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 165 SW: 130 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 75 SW: 70 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1002 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/19 12 UTC: 16.7 S / 58.1 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 455 SW: 425 NW: 295
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 240 SW: 230 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

24H: 2022/02/20 00 UTC: 17.3 S / 56.7 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 510 SW: 415 NW: 335
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 280 SW: 230 NW: 195
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

36H: 2022/02/20 12 UTC: 17.7 S / 55.7 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 465 SW: 405 NW: 370
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 250 SW: 250 NW: 215
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 100
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 65

48H: 2022/02/21 00 UTC: 18.2 S / 54.3 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 470 SW: 400 NW: 360
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 260 SW: 250 NW: 220
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 130
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 75

60H: 2022/02/21 12 UTC: 18.7 S / 52.6 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 520 SW: 390 NW: 325
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 285 SW: 240 NW: 205
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SW: 110 NW: 100
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 65

72H: 2022/02/22 00 UTC: 19.1 S / 50.8 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 510 SW: 305 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 280 SW: 195 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SW: 100 NW: 130
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 75

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/23 00 UTC: 20.5 S / 46.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 400 SW: 0 NW: 215

120H: 2022/02/24 00 UTC: 23.4 S / 42.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 405 SW: 345 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 230 SW: 150 NW: 165

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.0 CI=4.5-

DURING THE NIGHT, THE CLOUD PATTERN OF EMNATI HAS EVOLVED FROM AN
EMBEDDED CENTERTO A CURVED BAND CONFIGURATION. NO MICROWAVE IMAGERY
AVAILABLE TO ASSESS THE EVOLUTION OF THE INNER CORE. THE SUBJECTIVE
AND OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES ARE STATIONARY AND SO IS THE INITIAL
INTENSITY THAT IS THEREFORE LEFT AT 65 KT.

THE PARTIAL ASCAT DATA SUPERIMPOSED ON THE METOPB AMSUB IMAGERY OF
1725Z ALLOWED TO SHIFT THE POSITION OF 18Z FURTHER NORTHWEST (NEW
ESTIMATE: 15.2S-60.5E).

AT 00Z, THE ST-BRANDON STATION GIVES WINDS FROM EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 45
KT (GUSTS 118 KM/H) WITH A PRESSURE AT 989.3 HPA, BEING AT THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE STORM FORCE WINDS RADII (SOURCE: MAURITIUS
WEATHER SERVICES)

LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF RSMC TRACK: EMNATI CONTINUES, FOR THE NEXT
24 TO 36H, ON A GENERAL SOUTH-WEST DIRECTION, UNDER THE EFFECT OF THE
STRENGTHENING OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERE GEOPOTENTIALS TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM AND THE PASSAGE OF A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN
THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST. BEYOND THAT, A NEW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND THEN SLIDE BY TUESDAY TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THIS PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW A GRADUAL BEND
TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST, THEN, BEYOND TUESDAY, TO A NEW TURN
TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE APPRECIATION OF THIS WESTWARD BEND:
GFS CONTINUES TO BE INSENSITIVE AND TO FAVOR A SOUTH-WESTERN TREND,
WHILE IFS MOVES THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SIGNIFICANTLY AND MORE LONGER TO
THE WEST. THE CONTRIBUTION OF THE 400 HPA DIRECTOR FLOW BUT ALSO
DIFFERENCES IN THE APPRECIATION OF THE AMPLITUDE OF THE ACTION
CENTERS PRESENT IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE EXPLAIN IN PART THESE
DIFFERENCES IN SCENARIO. THE EPS+GEFS ENSEMBLE TRACKS REFLECTS THIS
DISPERSION. THE RSMC SCENARIO REMAINS ON A COMPROMISE (CLOSE TO THE
TRACK PREDICTED BY AROME) BUT THIS SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE INDICATES A
LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY ON THE IMPACTS FOR THE MASCAREIGNES (WORST
CASE SCENARIO ON THE GFS TRACK) AND, IN THE LONGER TERM, ON THE
LOCATION OF THE LANDFALL ON THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE STILL A BIT
SHEARED WHICH EXPLAINS THE CURRENT PLATEAU IN TERMS OF
INTENSIFICATION. SECONDLY, EMNATI IS CIRCULATING ON ALMOST THE SAME
TRACK AS DUMAKO WHICH ARRIVED ONLY A FEW DAYS AGO AND CAN TEMPORARILY
BENEFIT FROM A LOWER OCEANIC POTENTIAL. BUT ON ITS CURRENT TRACK, IT
SHOULD GAIN WARMER WATERS AND GRADUALLY APPROACH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
DEFINING A WEAKENING OF THE SHEAR AND A VERY GOOD UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE. AN INTENSIFICATION TREND REMAINS EXPECTED AT THE APPROACH
OF THE MASCARENE ISLANDS, POTENTIALLY UP TO THE STAGE OF INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE AT THE TIME OF THE CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE ISLANDS.
THE PRESENT RSMC FORECAST TAKES INTO ACCOUNT THE POSSIBLE OCCURRENCE
OF A REPLACEMENT CYCLE OF THE EYEWALL, THE PRECISE CHRONOLOGY OF
WHICH REMAINS DIFFICULT TO PREDICT. THIS COULD LEAD TO INTENSITIES
DIFFERENT FROM THOSE FORECAST, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN THE NORTHERN
MASCAREIGNES AND THE MALAGASY COAST.

IN TERMS OF IMPACTS, CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE OVER MAURITIUS ON
SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN LA REUNION ON SATURDAY EVENING. THE MOST
PROBABLE SCENARIO GIVES GALE CONDITIONS (ASSOCIATED WITH GUSTS TO
90-100 KM/H AT SEA LEVEL) ON THE ISLANDS. AT THE MARGIN OF THE INNER
CORE OF THE SYSTEM, HEAVY RAINS WOULD BE LIMITED TO THE RELIEF AREAS.
THE WORST CASE SCENARIO, GFS TYPE, WOULD EXPOSE THE ISLANDS TO STORM
FORCE WINDS AND SIGNIFICANTLY HEAVIER RAINFALL OVER THE RELIEF AREAS.

IN THE LONGER TERM, THE LANDFALL OVER THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR,
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY, REMAINS QUITE UNCERTAIN, GIVEN THE RECENT TREND
IN GUIDANCE. THE MOST PROBABLE AREA AT THE MOMENT SEEMS TO BE BETWEEN
TAMATAVE AND MANANJARY, EVEN IF ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS ARE POSSIBLE.

THE INHABITANTS OF THE MASCAREIGNES AND OF THE EAST COAST OF
MADAGASCAR ARE THUS INVITED TO FOLLOW WITH ATTENTION THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS SYSTEM.=

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