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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Tropical Cyclone 5 (emnati) 
Message-ID: <20220219074242.2403E1C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sat, 19 Feb 2022 07:42:42 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 190653
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/5/20212022
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (EMNATI)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/19 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.9 S / 58.9 E
(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY EIGHT    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 973 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 405 SW: 370 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 90 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/19 18 UTC: 16.8 S / 57.2 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 530 SW: 400 NW: 315
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 295 SW: 220 NW: 195
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 120 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

24H: 2022/02/20 06 UTC: 17.6 S / 55.8 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 490 SW: 370 NW: 360
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 280 SW: 175 NW: 220
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 100 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 65

36H: 2022/02/20 18 UTC: 18.1 S / 54.6 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 470 SW: 425 NW: 370
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 260 SW: 260 NW: 230
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 120 NW: 100
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 65

48H: 2022/02/21 06 UTC: 18.5 S / 53.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 480 SW: 390 NW: 345
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 270 SW: 250 NW: 220
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 140
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 65

60H: 2022/02/21 18 UTC: 18.8 S / 51.3 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 500 SW: 360 NW: 325
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 280 SW: 230 NW: 220
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SW: 120 NW: 120
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 75

72H: 2022/02/22 06 UTC: 19.3 S / 49.5 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 465 SW: 215 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 260 SW: 130 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 130
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SW: 65 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/23 06 UTC: 21.3 S / 45.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

120H: 2022/02/24 06 UTC: 23.7 S / 42.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 415 SW: 370 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 250 SW: 185 NW: 175

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0

OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS, THE CURVED BAND PATTERN MAITAINED AND EVEN
IMPROVED. AN EYE IMPROVED ON THE LATEST VISIBLE IMAGES. LATE NIGHT
MICROWAVE DATA SHOWED NO SIGN OF DEVELOPMENT BUT AN INCREASE FOR THE
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS. SMOS AND SENTINEL LATE NIGHT DATA SHOW MAX
WINDS AROUND 55 TO 60KT. GIVEN THE RECENT TREND, INTENSITY IS
MAINTAINED AT 65KT.  AT 03Z, THE ST-BRANDON STATION GIVES WINDS FROM
EAST AT 54 KT WITH A PRESSURE AT 989.2 HPA.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF RSMC TRACK: EMNATI CONTINUES, FOR THE NEXT
24 TO 36H, ON A GENERAL SOUTH-WEST DIRECTION, UNDER THE EFFECT OF THE
STRENGTHENING OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERE GEOPOTENTIALS TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM AND THE PASSAGE OF A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN
THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST. BEYOND THAT, A NEW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND THEN SLIDE BY TUESDAY TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THIS PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW A GRADUAL BEND
TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST, THEN, BEYOND TUESDAY, TO A NEW TURN
TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE APPRECIATION OF THIS WESTWARD BEND:
GFS CONTINUES TO BE INSENSITIVE AND TO FAVOR A SOUTH-WESTERN TREND,
WHILE IFS MOVES THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SIGNIFICANTLY AND MORE LONGER TO
THE WEST. THE CONTRIBUTION OF THE 400 HPA DIRECTOR FLOW BUT ALSO
DIFFERENCES IN THE APPRECIATION OF THE AMPLITUDE OF THE ACTION
CENTERS PRESENT IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE EXPLAIN IN PART THESE
DIFFERENCES IN SCENARIO. THE RSMC SCENARIO REMAINS ON A COMPROMISE
(CLOSE TO THE TRACK PREDICTED BY AROME) BUT THIS SPREAD IN THE
GUIDANCE INDICATES A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY ON THE IMPACTS FOR THE
MASCAREIGNES (WORST CASE SCENARIO ON THE GFS TRACK) AND, IN THE
LONGER TERM, ON THE LOCATION OF THE LANDFALL ON THE EAST COAST OF
MADAGASCAR.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE STILL A BIT
SHEARED WHICH EXPLAINS THE CURRENT PLATEAU IN TERMS OF
INTENSIFICATION. BUT ON ITS CURRENT TRACK, IT SHOULD GAIN WARMER
WATERS AND GRADUALLY APPROACH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS DEFINING A
WEAKENING OF THE SHEAR AND A VERY GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. THE
ONSET OF AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE IS LIKELY IN THE NEXT 36H, IN A
SIMILAR ENVIRONNEMENT AS BATSIRAI AND GIVEN THE HWRF AND AROME
FORECAST. THE CURRENT FORECAST LIMITS THE INTENSIFICATION RATE AT
SHORT RANGE BEACUASE OF THAT BEFORE A STEEPER DEEPENING. INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE IS LIKELY TO BE REACHED.

IN TERMS OF IMPACTS, CONDITIONS ARE DETERIORATING OVER MAURITIUS AND
REUNION TODAY. THE MOST PROBABLE SCENARIO GIVES GALE CONDITIONS
(ASSOCIATED WITH GUSTS TO 90-100 KM/H AT SEA LEVEL) ON THE ISLANDS.
AT THE MARGIN OF THE INNER CORE OF THE SYSTEM, HEAVY RAINS WOULD BE
LIMITED TO THE RELIEF AREAS. THE WORST CASE SCENARIO, GFS TYPE, WOULD
EXPOSE THE ISLANDS TO STORM FORCE WINDS AND SIGNIFICANTLY HEAVIER
RAINFALL OVER THE RELIEF AREAS.

IN THE LONGER TERM, THE LANDFALL OVER THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR,
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY, REMAINS QUITE UNCERTAIN, GIVEN THE RECENT TREND
IN GUIDANCE. THE MOST PROBABLE AREA AT THE MOMENT SEEMS TO BE BETWEEN
TAMATAVE AND MANANJARY, EVEN IF ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS ARE POSSIBLE.

THE INHABITANTS OF THE MASCAREIGNES AND OF THE EAST COAST OF
MADAGASCAR ARE THUS INVITED TO FOLLOW WITH ATTENTION THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS SYSTEM.=

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