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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220219092930.5B0411C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sat, 19 Feb 2022 09:29:30 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 190929
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Feb 19 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure building across
the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains of Mexico will=20
support a gale-force gap wind event across the Tehuantepec=20
region overnight through Sun morning. Gale-force northerly=20=20
winds extend across the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight, and extend=20
offshore to near 14.5N. Winds will further increase to 35-40 kt=20
on Sat, with seas building to 13 ft. Then, winds are forecast to
diminish below gale force Sun morning with seas subsiding to=20
8-10 ft. Refer to the NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the=20
National Hurricane Center at website:

https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.hurricanes.gov/marine/MIAHSFEP2.sht=
ml__;!!DZ3fjg!v2q0q9BDY5zUSivU66_KitUb2RZUBnO32UZnn0rGqQMgHX71-ZvgB-Us8Op92=
6BHjseyLHwq$  for more=20
details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...=20

A trough extends from 10N75.5W to 03.5N98W. The ITCZ extends=20
from 03.5N98W to 05.5N127W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 07N E of 84W to=20
coast of Colombia, and within 90 nm N of ITCZ W of 132W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please,
see the Special Features section for details. Winds across the
Tehuantepec region will gradually diminish Sat night through Mon.=20=20

A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja
California, producing moderate northerly winds. Long period NW=20
swell continues to affect the region with seas of 5-8 ft N of=20
Cabo San Lazaro, and 4-7 ft elsewhere, including the entrance to
the Gulf of California. High pressure over the Great Basin of=20
the USA supports moderate to fresh northerly across the Gulf of=20
California, where seas are generally 4 to 6 ft.

Long period NW swell will continue across the Baja California=20
offshores through Sat with seas gradually subsiding to 4-6 ft by
evening. Moderate to fresh NW winds across the Gulf of=20
California will gradually diminish Sat becoming light and=20
variable on Sun. Fresh to locally strong winds occurring near the
coast of Cabo Corrientes will diminish to moderate Sat. Looking=20
ahead, fresh to strong winds and building seas are expected late=20
Tue through Wed offshore Baja California Norte and in the=20
northern Gulf of California as a cold front moves across the=20
area.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and=20
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

NE gap winds have increased to fresh to strong offshore of the=20
Papagayo region tonight. Moderate to locally fresh northerly=20
winds prevail inside the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle winds=20
remain elsewhere. Seas of 3-5 ft prevail across the area except
to 6 ft downwind of Papagayo. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted along the coast of Colombia and offshore of
Coast Rica, as described in the monsoon trough/ITCZ section=20
above.

Fresh to strong gap winds are expected across the Papagayo region
at night through early next week. The strongest winds are=20
expected Sat night, and again Sun night, with seas building to=20
9 ft offshore Papagayo. Fresh N winds will pulse at night in the
Gulf of Panama through Mon night, with strong winds and 7 ft=20
seas possible there Sat night. Seas generated in the Tehuantepec=20
and Papagayo gap wind areas are forecast to propagate into the=20
offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador during the upcoming=20
weekend. Light to gentle winds will remain elsewhere.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

Strong high pressure of 1034 mb is centered well north of the=20
area with a ridge extending SE to the Revillagigedo Islands and=20
north of the ITCZ. The pressure gradient between the high and=20
ITCZ is producing an area of fresh to strong trades over the open
waters N of the ITCZ to 21N and W of 120W. Seas in this area are
9 to 11 ft in mixed NW swell and NE wind waves. Elsewhere, N of=20
04N and W of 114W seas are 8-10 ft in mixed long period NW swell=20
and NE wind waves.=20

Fresh to locally strong trade winds winds will continue north of
the ITCZ to about 15N-20N and west of 125W over the next couple=20
of days. Seas will gradually subside across the waters W of 120=20
through Sun. Seas generated by strong winds off California are=20
forecast to reach the north-central waters Mon afternoon into=20
Tue. Seas of 8-9 ft are expected to affect the waters N of 27N=20
between 116W-127W by Tue morning.

$$
Stripling


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