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From: <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: RSMC La Reunion Tropical Cyclone Analysis
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Message-ID: <20220219115027.9F8131C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sat, 19 Feb 2022 11:50:27 +0000
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081 
AWIO20 FMEE 191145

TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE

BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN

DATE: 2022/02/19 AT 1200 UTC

PART 1:

WARNING SUMMARY:


Warning WTIO20 016/05 and WTIO30 FMEE 017/05 issued at 06UTC on Tropical Cyclone EMNATI.

Next warnings at 12UTC.

PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:


The monsoon flow is currently noisy due to the presence of a near equatorial ridge  over the northern center of the basin. The monsoon flow is therefore mainly established west of 70E, where it converges within the tropical cyclone EMNATI. This one concentrates most of the convective activity over the basin. It is also observed to a lesser extent:

- in the slowing of the monsoon flow around 12 S between EMNATI and a low without a future of deepening in the short term, located on the eastern end of our basin.

- in the northern Mozambique Channel, in the low level convergence of the Kashkasi flow.

- inland of Mozambique, around the low-pressure area linked to the landing of DUMAKO.

As of tomorrow, the trans-equatorial monsoon flow should progressively re-establish over the whole width of the basin, and thus allow the return of a (short) monsoon trough towards 11S east of 75E. However, cyclogenesis will have a hard time setting up, given a lack of low-level convergence and weak to moderate mid-tropospheric windshear, next week.

Tropical Cyclone EMNATI:

Position at 10 UTC : 16.2oS / 58.3oE

Movement : SW at 9 kt

Maximum wind averaged over 10 minutes : 65kt

Minimum central pressure : 973hPa

For more information, please refer to bulletins WTIO21 and WTIO31 issued at 06UTC and following.

Post-Tropical Depression Ex-Fezile:

Position at 10 UTC: 35.1oS / 88.8oE

Movement: SSE at 23 kt

Maximum wind averaged over 10 minutes: 50kt

Minimum central pressure: 978hPa

The system is evacuating towards the middle latitudes

Overland depression DUMAKO : The system disappeared when it landed on the Mazambique land. However, the low-pressure area continued to generate heavy rains over the region of Quelimane, as well as the border region with Malawi.

Development of an other moderate tropical storm is not expected for the next 5 days.


NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of the genesis of a moderate tropical storm over the basin and within the next five days:

Very low:       less than 10%              Moderate:        30% to 60%        Very high:      over 90%
Low:             10% to 30%                  High:               60% to 90%

The Southwestern Indian Ocean basin extends from the equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.

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