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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Tropical Cyclone 5 (emnati) 
Message-ID: <20220219134332.7D40B1C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sat, 19 Feb 2022 13:43:32 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 191304
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 18/5/20212022
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (EMNATI)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/19 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.4 S / 58.0 E
(SIXTEEN    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY EIGHT    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 970 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 405 SW: 370 NW: 335
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 165 SW: 165 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 90 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/20 00 UTC: 17.2 S / 56.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 510 SW: 380 NW: 370
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 280 SW: 195 NW: 215
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SW: 110 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 45 NW: 45

24H: 2022/02/20 12 UTC: 17.8 S / 55.3 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 465 SW: 370 NW: 390
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 260 SW: 230 NW: 220
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 95 SW: 110 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 75

36H: 2022/02/21 00 UTC: 18.2 S / 53.9 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 480 SW: 370 NW: 370
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 270 SW: 240 NW: 220
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 140
64 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 75

48H: 2022/02/21 12 UTC: 18.7 S / 52.3 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 500 SW: 405 NW: 335
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 280 SW: 270 NW: 205
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 120
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 65

60H: 2022/02/22 00 UTC: 19.4 S / 50.4 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 535 SW: 305 NW: 295
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 305 SW: 205 NW: 195
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 130
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 75

72H: 2022/02/22 12 UTC: 20.2 S / 48.7 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 455 SW: 175 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 260 SW: 110 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 120
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 55 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/23 12 UTC: 22.9 S / 44.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 360 NW: 250

120H: 2022/02/24 12 UTC: 25.9 S / 41.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 490 SW: 345 NW: 335
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 305 SW: 195 NW: 205

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5+

OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS, EMNATI CLOUD PATTERN PROGRESSIVELY EVOLVED
TOWARD AN EMBEDDED CENTER WITH THE DISAPEARING OF THE TEMPORARY EYE.
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS BETWEEN 4.5 AND 5.0 LEAD TO A FINAL
INTENSITY OF 70KT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE. IN TH
ABSENCE OF MICROWAVE DATA, THE EXACT LOCATION IS RATHER UNCERTAIN;

NO CHANGE IN THE RSMC TRACK: EMNATI CONTINUES, FOR THE NEXT 24H, ON A
GENERAL SOUTH-WESTWARD DIRECTION, UNDER THE EFFECT OF THE
STRENGTHENING OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERE GEOPOTENTIALS TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM AND THE PASSAGE OF A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN
THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST. BEYOND THAT, A NEW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND THEN SLIDE BY TUESDAY TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THIS PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW A GRADUAL BEND
TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST, THEN, BEYOND TUESDAY, TO A NEW TURN
TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST. A CONSENSUS SEEMS TO START EMERGING IN THE
LATEST GUIDANCE EVENE IF THE GFS MODEL REMAINS ISOLATED IN A SOUTHERN
TRACK. UNCERTAINTIES REMAINS IMPORTANT AT SHORT RANGE ON THE CLOSEST
DISTANCE TO THE MASCARENES ISLANDS (AROUND 320KM +/-100KM) AN LATER
WITH THE LIKELY LANDING ON THE EASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR (BETWEEN
TOAMASINA AND VATOMANDRY).

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVOARBLE,
WITH WARM WATERS, A DECREASING SHEAR AND A GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE.
HOWEVER, THE ONSET OF AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE IS LIKELY IN THE
NEXT 36H, GIVEN THE CLOUD PATTERN, AROME SIMULATIONS AND THE
SIMILARITIES WITH BATSIRAI. THE CURRENT FORECAST LIMITS THE
INTENSIFICATION RATE AT SHORT RANGE BECAUSE OF THIS POTENTIAL ERC
BEFORE A STEEPER DEEPENING. INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE IS LIKELY
TO BE REACHED BEFORE LANDING.

IN TERMS OF IMPACTS, CONDITIONS ARE DETERIORATING OVER MAURITIUS AND
REUNION TODAY. THE MOST PROBABLE SCENARIO GIVES GALE CONDITIONS
(ASSOCIATED WITH GUSTS TO 90-100 KM/H AT SEA LEVEL) ON THE ISLANDS.
AT THE MARGIN OF THE INNER CORE OF THE SYSTEM, HEAVY RAINS WOULD BE
LIMITED TO THE RELIEF AREAS. THE WORST CASE SCENARIO, GFS TYPE, WOULD
EXPOSE THE ISLANDS TO STORM FORCE WINDS AND SIGNIFICANTLY HEAVIER
RAINFALL OVER THE RELIEF AREAS.

IN THE LONGER TERM, THE LANDFALL OVER THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR,
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY, REMAINS QUITE UNCERTAIN, GIVEN THE RECENT TREND
IN GUIDANCE. THE MOST PROBABLE AREA AT THE MOMENT SEEMS TO BE BETWEEN
TOAMASINA AND MANANJARY, EVEN IF ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS ARE POSSIBLE.

THE INHABITANTS OF THE MASCAREIGNES AND OF THE EAST COAST OF
MADAGASCAR ARE THUS INVITED TO FOLLOW WITH ATTENTION THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS SYSTEM.=

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