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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220219155354.8DEEA1C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sat, 19 Feb 2022 15:53:54 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 191553
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat Feb 19 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A ridge across the eastern=20
slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains of Mexico will continue to=20
support a gale-force gap wind event across the Tehuantepec region
through Sun morning. Gale-force northerly winds are blowing across
the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and extend offshore to near 14.5N. Winds
are expected to increase to 35-40 kt today, with seas building=20
to 13 ft. Winds are forecast to diminish below gale force by=20
late Sun morning and gradually diminish through Mon. Refer to the
NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center=20
at website:

https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.hurricanes.gov/marine/MIAHSFEP2.sht=
ml__;!!DZ3fjg!uUuFYkdsKd3tp6XstzAwd3WgwE8QepC0WnYaFPwhF5JhqKZfqdOSYez8XE-3q=
G2q4RhGoq19$  for more=20
details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...=20

A trough extends from a 1009 mb low pressure over northern=20
Colombia near 09N75W to 04N95W. The ITCZ continues from 04N95W=20
to 06N120W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is=20
noted from 03N to 06N E of 79W to coast of Colombia. Similar
convection is within 60 nm N of the ITCZ W of 132W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please,
see the Special Features section for details. Winds across the
Tehuantepec region will gradually diminish Sun through Mon.

A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California,
producing moderate northerly winds. Long period NW swell continues
to affect the region with seas of 4-7 ft, including the entrance
to the Gulf of California. High pressure over the Great Basin of
the USA supports moderate to locally fresh northerly across the=20
Gulf of California, where seas are generally 3 to 5 ft.

Long period NW swell will continue across the Baja California=20
offshores through today with seas gradually subsiding to 4-6 ft=20
by this evening. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds across the=20
Gulf of California will gradually diminish today becoming light=20
and variable on Sun. Looking ahead, fresh to strong winds and=20
building seas are expected late Tue through Wed offshore Baja=20
California Norte and in the northern Gulf of California as a cold
front or frontal trough moves across the area.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and=20
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to strong NE gap winds are noted across the Gulf of Papagayo
and downwind to near 09N90W this morning. Moderate to locally=20
fresh northerly winds prevail inside the Gulf of Panama. Light to
gentle winds remain elsewhere. Seas of 3-5 ft prevail across the
area except 6 to 8 ft downwind of Papagayo. Scattered moderate=20
convection is noted along the coast of Colombia as described in=20
the monsoon trough/ITCZ section above.

Fresh to strong gap winds are expected across the Papagayo=20
region at night through early next week. The strongest winds OF=20
25 to 30 kt are expected tonight, then Sun night and again Mon=20
night, with seas building to 10 ft offshore Papagayo. Fresh to=20
locally strong N winds will pulse at night in the Gulf of Panama=20
through Mon night, with seas building to 7 ft. Seas generated in=20
the Tehuantepec and Papagayo gap wind areas are forecast to=20
propagate into the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador=20
this weekend. Light to gentle winds will remain elsewhere.=20

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

Strong high pressure of 1034 mb is centered well north of the=20
area with a ridge extending SE to near the Revillagigedo Islands
and north of the ITCZ. The pressure gradient between the high=20
and ITCZ is producing an area of fresh trades over the open=20
waters N of the ITCZ to 20N and W of 120W. Seas in this area are
9 to 11 ft in mixed NW swell and NE wind waves. Elsewhere, W of a
line from 25N140W to 20N130W to 12N115W to 05N135W to 06N140W=20
seas are 8-10 ft in mixed long period NW swell and NE wind waves.

Fresh to locally strong trade winds winds will continue north of
the ITCZ to about 15N-20N and west of 125W over the next couple=20
of days. Seas will gradually subside across the waters W of 120=20
through Sun. Seas generated by strong winds off California are=20
forecast to reach the NE waters by late Mon.=20

$$
GR


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