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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Tropical Cyclone 5 (emnati) 
Message-ID: <20220219185110.D6D551C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sat, 19 Feb 2022 18:51:10 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 191848
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 19/5/20212022
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (EMNATI)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/19 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.9 S / 57.2 E
(SIXTEEN    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY SEVEN    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 970 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 405 SW: 370 NW: 335
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 165 SW: 165 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 90 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/20 06 UTC: 17.5 S / 55.8 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 510 SW: 405 NW: 390
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 280 SW: 250 NW: 220
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 100
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 65

24H: 2022/02/20 18 UTC: 18.0 S / 54.7 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 470 SW: 405 NW: 390
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 260 SW: 260 NW: 230
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 120
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 75

36H: 2022/02/21 06 UTC: 18.5 S / 53.2 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 480 SW: 405 NW: 350
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 270 SW: 270 NW: 215
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 150
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 75

48H: 2022/02/21 18 UTC: 19.1 S / 51.4 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 500 SW: 370 NW: 360
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 285 SW: 250 NW: 230
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 75

60H: 2022/02/22 06 UTC: 19.8 S / 49.6 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 490 SW: 280 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 280 SW: 175 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 120
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 75

72H: 2022/02/22 18 UTC: 20.6 S / 47.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 510 SW: 195 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 295 SW: 120 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 120

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/23 18 UTC: 23.9 S / 42.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 400 SW: 360 NW: 260

120H: 2022/02/24 18 UTC: 27.7 S / 41.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 535 SW: 380 NW: 360
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 335 SW: 240 NW: 215

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5+

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN OF EMNATI HAS
PROGRESSIVELY EVOLVED FROM A CDO PATTERN TO AN EYE PATTERN DURING THE
LAST 2 HOURS. WHILE THE MICROWAVE DATA IN THE AFTERNOON COULD SUGGEST
THE BEGINNING OF A REPLACEMENT CYCLE OF THE EYE WALL, THE NOTICEABLE
IMPROVEMENT ON THE 1445UTC PASS AND THE INCREASE IN INTENSITY OF THE
LAST MOMENTS PLEAD FOR AN ABORTION OF THIS REPLACEMENT. THE WEAKENING
OF THE SHEAR COULD BE THE CAUSE. THE DVORAK ANALYSIS IN AVERAGE EYE
OVER 6H GIVES A VALUE OF 4.5+ AND PLEADS FOR ESTIMATED WIND VALUES OF
THE ORDER OF 70KT. IN SHORT, NO CLEAR INTENSIFICATION YET BUT EMNATI
IS IN A REGULAR INTENSIFICATION PHASE.

NO CHANGE IN TERMS OF RSMC TRACK: EMNATI CONTINUES ITS TRACK ON A
GENERAL WEST-SOUTH-WEST HEADING (OR EVEN TEMPORARILY SOUTH-WEST
DURING SHORT PERIODS DUE TO A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH-WEST) UNDER THE EFFECT OF THE STRENGTHENING OF THE
MID-TROPOSPHERE GEOPOTENTIALS TO THE SOUTH-EAST AND NORTH-EAST OF THE
SYSTEM. A CONSENSUS SEEMS TO START TO EMERGE IN THE LAST GUIDANCE
FOLLOWED BY THE RSMC EVEN IF THE UNCERTAINTY LEAVES A DISTANCE OF
PASSAGE TO THE MASCARENE ISLANDS AT ABOUT 320KM +/-100KM. THEREAFTER,
A NEW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTHWEST FAVORING THE
MAINTENANCE OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK UNTIL ITS LANDING ON
MADAGASCAR, ON TUESDAY DURING THE DAY, BETWEEN MANANJARY AND
VATOMANDRY. EMNATI IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE MAINLAND AND EXIT INTO
THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL IN THE AFTERNOON OF WEDNESDAY TO TAKE A
STEEPER SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TRACK.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE
WITH WARM WATERS, DECREASING SHEAR AND A VERY GOOD ALTITUDE
DIVERGENCE. HOWEVER, THE START OF A REPLACEMENT CYCLE OF THE EYEWALL
HAS LIMITED THE INTENSIFICATION UNTIL NOW, BUT IT SHOULD BE ABLE TO
SET UP FIRST TIMIDLY AND THEN MORE FRANKLY. IT IS NECESSARY TO LEAVE
BETWEEN 24H AND 36H TO EMNATI SO THAT IT STRENGTHENS MORE FRANKLY AND
REACHES THE THRESHOLD OF INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE AFTER ITS PASSAGE
NEAR THE MASCAREIGNES. FROM NOW UNTIL ITS LANDING ON MADAGASCAR, A
NEW FLUCTUATION OF INTENSITY IS POSSIBLE BECAUSE OF A NEW CYCLE OF
REPLACEMENT OF THE EYEWALL, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAINING
GOOD IN SPITE OF A MODERATE SHEAR STILL PRESENT.

IN TERMS OF IMPACTS, CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE OVER
MAURITIUS AND REUNION. THE MOST PROBABLE SCENARIO GIVES GALE
CONDITIONS (ASSOCIATED WITH GUSTS TO 90-100 KM/H ON SEA) ON THE
ISLANDS. AT THE MARGIN OF THE ACTIVE CORE OF THE SYSTEM, THE HEAVY
RAINS WOULD BE LIMITED TO THE RELIEF AREAS. IN THE LONGER TIME
SCALES, THE IMPACT AREA ON THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR, EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY, IS STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN, BUT THE MOST PROBABLE AREA AT THE
MOMENT SEEMS TO BE BETWEEN VATOMANDRY AND MANANJARY, EVEN IF
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS REMAIN POSSIBLE.

THE INHABITANTS OF THE MASCAREIGNES AND OF THE EAST COAST OF
MADAGASCAR ARE THUS INVITED TO FOLLOW WITH ATTENTION THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS SYSTEM.=

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