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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Tropical Cyclone 5 (emnati) 
Message-ID: <20220220003019.A212C1C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sun, 20 Feb 2022 00:30:19 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 200027
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 20/5/20212022
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (EMNATI)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/20 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.0 S / 56.6 E
(SEVENTEEN    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY SIX    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 960 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 405 SW: 370 NW: 335
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 165 SW: 165 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 90 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/20 12 UTC: 17.7 S / 55.3 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 480 SW: 415 NW: 390
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 270 SW: 260 NW: 220
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SW: 120 NW: 100
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 65

24H: 2022/02/21 00 UTC: 18.1 S / 53.9 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 470 SW: 390 NW: 380
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 260 SW: 260 NW: 230
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SW: 120 NW: 120
64 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 85

36H: 2022/02/21 12 UTC: 18.7 S / 52.6 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 500 SW: 405 NW: 350
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 280 SW: 260 NW: 220
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 65

48H: 2022/02/22 00 UTC: 19.5 S / 50.6 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 520 SW: 335 NW: 325
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 295 SW: 220 NW: 215
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 120
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 85

60H: 2022/02/22 12 UTC: 20.3 S / 48.8 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 480 SW: 195 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 280 SW: 120 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 120
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SW: 55 NW: 65

72H: 2022/02/23 00 UTC: 21.2 S / 47.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 470 SW: 165 NW: 230

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/24 00 UTC: 24.6 S / 42.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 415 SW: 350 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 250 SW: 205 NW: 175

120H: 2022/02/25 00 UTC: 28.5 S / 40.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 415 SE: 510 SW: 335 NW: 415
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 325 SW: 215 NW: 260

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.0+

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE EYE CLOUD PATTERN OF EMNATI HAS CHANGED
A LOT, PRESENTING A MORE OR LESS WELL DEFINED EYE. THE LAST AMSR2
PASS OF 2125UTC ALLOWS TO NOTE A SLIGHT SHIFT BETWEEN THE LOCATION OF
THE CENTER IN ALTITUDE (SUGGESTED BY THE INFRA-RED IMAGES) AND IN LOW
LAYERS. THIS REFLECTS THE STILL MODERATE PRESENCE OF SHEAR, BUT WHICH
IS WEAKENING ACCORDING TO THE CIMSS ANALYSIS. THE DVORAK ANALYSIS
AVERAGED OVER 6H GIVES A VALUE OF 5.0+ DEFINING ESTIMATED WINDS OF
ABOUT 80KT. EMNATI IS THUS IN PHASE OF INTENSIFICATION WITH HOWEVER
SOME SIGNALS OF TRIGGERING OF CYCLE OF REPLACEMENT OF THE EYEWALL
WHICH CAN MAKE THE INTENSITY VARY DOWNWARDS.

IN THE SHORT TERM, NO CHANGE IN TERMS OF EXPECTED TRACK: EMNATI
CONTINUES ON A GENERAL WEST-SOUTHWEST COURSE UNDER THE EFFECT OF THE
RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE CONSENSUS IN THE GUIDANCE IS CONFIRMED
FOR A PASSAGE AT A DISTANCE OF ABOUT 330KM +/-100KM FROM MAURITIUS
AND REUNION. THEREAFTER, A NEW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES FROM
THE SOUTH-WEST, FAVORING THE MAINTENANCE OF THE WEST-SOUTH-WEST TRACK
UNTIL ITS LANDING ON MADAGASCAR, ON TUESDAY DURING THE DAY, BETWEEN
MANANJARY AND VATOMANDRY. EMNATI IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE MAINLAND AT
HIGH SPEED AND EXIT INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL IN THE AFTERNOON OF
WEDNESDAY. ONCE ON THE SEA, EMNATI WILL TAKE A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
DIRECTION.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE
WITH WARM WATERS, DECREASING SHEAR AND A VERY GOOD ALTITUDE
DIVERGENCE. EMNATI IS NOW IN AN INTENSIFICATION PHASE LEADING IT TO
THE STAGE OF INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE AFTER ITS PASSAGE NEAR THE
MASCARENE ISLANDS. THE INTENSIFICATION COULD BE TEMPORARILY GENERATED
BY THE FEATURES OF THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. BUT OVERALL, EMNATI
WILL INTENSIFY STEADILY UNTIL IT MAKES LANDFALL OVER MADAGASCAR, WITH
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAINING GOOD DESPITE MODERATE SHEAR STILL
PRESENT. ON LONGER TIME SCALES, EMNATI WILL EMERGE OVER THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL MUCH WEAKENED AND WILL SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS IT
TRACKS SOUTHWARD INTO A POST-TROPICAL SYSTEM BY THURSDAY.

IN TERMS OF IMPACTS, CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE OVER
MAURITIUS AND REUNION. THE MOST PROBABLE SCENARIO GIVES GALE
CONDITIONS (ASSOCIATED WITH GUSTS TO 90-100 KM/H ON SEA) ON THE
ISLANDS. AT THE MARGIN OF THE ACTIVE CORE OF THE SYSTEM, THE HEAVY
RAINS WOULD BE LIMITED TO THE RELIEF AREAS. IN THE LONGER TIME
SCALES, THE IMPACT AREA ON THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR, EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY, IS STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN, BUT THE MOST PROBABLE IMPACT AREA
SEEMS TO BE BETWEEN VATOMANDRY AND MANANJARY, EVEN IF ALTERNATIVE
SCENARIOS REMAIN POSSIBLE.

THE INHABITANTS OF THE MASCAREIGNES AND OF THE EAST COAST OF
MADAGASCAR ARE THUS INVITED TO FOLLOW WITH ATTENTION THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS SYSTEM.=

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