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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220220030312.1A11E1C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sun, 20 Feb 2022 03:03:12 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 192324
TWDEP=20

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Feb 19 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A ridge across the eastern=20
slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains of Mexico will continue to=20
support a gale-force gap wind event across the Tehuantepec region
through Sun morning. Gale-force northerly winds are blowing across
the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and extend offshore to near 14N. Peak
winds of 30-40 kt are expected tonight, with seas in the 9 to 13
ft range. Winds are forecast to diminish below gale force by=20
late Sun morning and gradually diminish through Mon. Refer to the
NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center=20
at website:

https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.hurricanes.gov/marine/MIAHSFEP2.sht=
ml__;!!DZ3fjg!ugsHsEzypy8wPW7VtvdM0D6qxgnYOGP79EtfAX3f2b0mr-kSa5hQyVRFyfb90=
ZgalWyW8iO7$  for more=20
details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...=20

A trough extends from a 1009 mb low pressure over northern=20
Colombia near 10N75W to 04N94W. The ITCZ continues from 04N94W=20
to 06N120W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is=20
noted from 03N to 05N E of 78W to coast of Colombia. Similar=20
convection is within 60 nm N of the ITCZ W of 138W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

A Gale Warning remains in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec.=20
Please, see the Special Features section for details. Winds=20
across the Tehuantepec region will gradually diminish late Sun=20
morning through Mon.

A ridge continues to dominate the offshore forecast waters of=20
Baja California, producing gentle to moderate northerly winds.=20
Long period NW swell continues to affect the region with seas of=20
4-6 ft. High pressure over the Great Basin of the USA supports=20
moderate to locally fresh NW winds across the central parts of
the Gulf while gentle to moderate NW winds are noted elsewhere
across the Gulf of California, where seas are generally 2 to 4=20
ft.

Seas will continue to subside across the offshore waters of Baja
California tonight through Mon. Seas generated by strong winds=20
off California are forecast to reach the waters N of Punta=20
Eugenia Mon night into Tue. Southerly winds will prevail across
the north and central parts of the Gulf of California Sun=20
through Tue. Looking ahead, fresh to strong winds and building=20
seas are expected late Tue through Wed offshore Baja California=20
Norte and in the northern Gulf of California as a cold front or=20
frontal trough moves across the area.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and=20
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to strong NE gap winds are noted across the Gulf of Papagayo
and downwind to near 09N90W. Moderate to locally fresh northerly
winds prevail inside the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle winds=20
remain elsewhere. Seas of 3-5 ft prevail across the area except 6
to 8 ft downwind of Papagayo.=20

A strong gap wind event is expected across the Papagayo region
tonight through early next week as a strong high pressure moves=20
from the east of the United States into the western Atlantic. The
strongest winds of 25 to 30 kt are expected each night through
Mon night, with seas building to 10 ft downstream of the Papagayo
region to about 90W-92W. Fresh to locally strong N winds will=20
pulse at night in the Gulf of Panama each night through Mon night,
with seas building to 7 ft. Seas generated in the Tehuantepec=20
and Papagayo gap wind areas are forecast to propagate into the=20
offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador through Mon. Light=20
to gentle winds will remain elsewhere.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

Strong high pressure located well NW of the area extends a ridge
SE to near the Revillagigedo Islands covering the waters north=20
of the ITCZ. The pressure gradient between the high and ITCZ is=20
producing an area of fresh trades over the open waters N of the=20
ITCZ to 20N and W of 115W based on recent scatterometer data.=20
Based on altimeter data, seas in the trade wind area are 9 to 11
ft in mixed NW swell and NE wind waves. Elsewhere, from 03N to=20
22N and W of 113W seas are 8-10 ft also in mixed long period NW=20
swell and NE wind waves.

Fresh to locally strong trade winds winds will continue north of
the ITCZ to about 15N-20N and west of 125W over the next couple=20
of days. Seas will gradually subside across the waters W of 115
through Mon. Seas generated by strong winds off California are=20
forecast to reach the NE waters by late Mon.=20

$$
GR


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