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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220220031609.C70B21C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sun, 20 Feb 2022 03:16:09 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 200315
TWDEP=20

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sun Feb 20 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A ridge across the eastern=20
slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains of Mexico will continue to=20
support a gale-force gap wind event across the Tehuantepec region
through Sun morning. Gale-force northerly winds to 40 kt are=20
blowing across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and currently extend=20
offshore to near 14N. Peak winds of 35-40 kt are expected to
continue overnight, with seas in the 9 to 13 ft range. Winds are
forecast to diminish below gale force by late Sun morning and=20
gradually diminish through Mon. Refer to the NWS High Seas=20
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website:

https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.hurricanes.gov/marine/MIAHSFEP2.sht=
ml__;!!DZ3fjg!oTJrtZnnFYnfKp_apOBsOry5YogQkXPChKuDJEopvsKkdUxBw7Fhe8mEefN-p=
8RLwMQ5L9b1$  for more=20
details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...=20

A trough extends from a 1009 mb low pressure over northern=20
Colombia near 10N74W to 04.5N93W. The ITCZ continues from 04.5N93W
to 05N110W to 06N126W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate=20
isolated strong convection is noted within 150 nm N of ITCZ W of
133W.=20=20

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

A Gale Warning remains in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec.=20
Please, see the Special Features section for details. Winds=20
across the Tehuantepec region will gradually diminish late Sun=20
morning through Mon before falling below 20 kt Mon afternoon.

A broad ridge continues to dominate the offshore forecast waters
of Baja California, producing gentle to moderate northerly=20
winds. Long period NW swell continues to affect the region with=20
seas of 4-6 ft across the area. Weakening high pressure over the
Great Basin of the USA supports moderate NW winds across the=20
central and southern parts of the Gulf of California while=20
gentle NW winds are noted across N portions the Gulf. Seas are=20
generally 2 to 4 ft.

Seas will subside modestly across the offshore waters of Baja=20
California tonight through Mon. Seas generated by strong winds=20
off California are forecast to reach the waters N of Punta=20
Eugenia Mon night into Tue. Southerly winds will prevail across=20
the north and central parts of the Gulf of California Sun through
Tue. Looking ahead, fresh to strong winds and building seas are=20
expected late Tue through Wed offshore Baja California Norte and=20
in the northern Gulf of California as a cold front or frontal=20
trough moves across the area.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and=20
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to strong NE gap winds are noted across the Gulf of Papagayo
and downwind to near 10N89W. Moderate to locally fresh northerly
winds prevail inside the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle winds=20
remain elsewhere. Seas of 3-5 ft prevail across the area except 6
to 7 ft downwind of Papagayo.=20

A strong gap wind event is expected across the Papagayo region
tonight through early next week as a strong high pressure slides=20=20
from the Ohio Valley of the United States into the western=20
Atlantic. The strongest winds of 25 to 30 kt are expected each=20
night through Mon night, with seas building 9-10 ft downstream=20
of the Papagayo region to about 90W-92W. Fresh to locally strong=20
N winds will pulse at night in the Gulf of Panama each night=20
through Mon night, with seas building to 7 ft. Seas generated in=20
the Tehuantepec and Papagayo gap wind areas are forecast to=20
propagate into the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador=20
through Mon. Light to gentle winds will remain elsewhere.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

Strong high pressure located well NW of the area extends a ridge
SE to near the Revillagigedo Islands covering the waters north=20
of the ITCZ. The pressure gradient between the high and ITCZ is=20
producing an area of fresh trades over the open waters N of the=20
ITCZ to 20N and W of 115W based on afternoon scatterometer data.
Seas in the trade wind area are 9 to 11 ft in mixed NW swell and
NE wind waves. Elsewhere, from 03N to 22N and W of 113W seas are
8-10 ft also in mixed long period NW swell and NE wind waves.

Fresh to locally strong trade winds winds will continue north of
the ITCZ to about 15N-20N and west of 125W over the next couple=20
of days. Seas will gradually subside across the waters W of 115W
through Mon. Seas generated by strong winds off California are=20
forecast to reach the NE waters by late Mon.=20

$$
Stripling


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