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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Tropical Cyclone 5 (emnati) 
Message-ID: <20220220060743.141DF1C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sun, 20 Feb 2022 06:07:43 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 200603
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 21/5/20212022
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (EMNATI)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/20 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.3 S / 55.9 E
(SEVENTEEN    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FIVE    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 956 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 85 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 445 SW: 405 NW: 335
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 205 SW: 205 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/20 18 UTC: 17.8 S / 54.7 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 510 SW: 415 NW: 380
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 280 SW: 260 NW: 230
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SW: 130 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 65

24H: 2022/02/21 06 UTC: 18.3 S / 53.2 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 470 SW: 405 NW: 350
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 260 SW: 270 NW: 215
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SW: 130 NW: 100
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 65

36H: 2022/02/21 18 UTC: 19.0 S / 51.6 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 510 SW: 360 NW: 350
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 285 SW: 250 NW: 220
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 100 SW: 130 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 85

48H: 2022/02/22 06 UTC: 19.9 S / 49.8 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 415 SE: 530 SW: 280 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 295 SW: 185 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 130
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 75 NW: 75

60H: 2022/02/22 18 UTC: 20.8 S / 48.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 510 SW: 165 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 295 SW: 110 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 95 NW: 130

72H: 2022/02/23 06 UTC: 22.2 S / 45.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 535 SW: 315 NW: 250

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/24 06 UTC: 25.7 S / 42.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 470 SW: 335 NW: 285
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 285 SW: 185 NW: 175

120H: 2022/02/25 06 UTC: 29.6 S / 41.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 415 SE: 510 SW: 425 NW: 400
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 315 SW: 285 NW: 240
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 40

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.5-

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE EYE OF EMNATI HAS BEEN MAINTAINED,
BECOMING PROGRESSIVELY BETTER DEFINED, WITH NEVERTHELESS CLOUDY TOPS
RE-CLADDING AT THE END OF THE NIGHT. THE COMPARISON OF THE TWO
MICROWAVE PASSAGES AMSR2 FROM 2125UTC, AND SSMIS FROM 0006UTC, SHOW A
CONTRACTION OF THE EYE AND A CONSOLIDATION OF THE EYE WALL.
 THESE SIGNS OF INTENSIFICATION REFLECT THE ONGOING DECREASE IN
SHEAR, WHICH APPEARS IN THE CIMSS ANALYSIS.
THE DVORAK ANALYSIS AVERAGED OVER 6H GIVES A VALUE OF 5.5- DEFINING
ESTIMATED WINDS OF ABOUT 85KT. EMNATI IS THUS IN PHASE OF
INTENSIFICATION WITH HOWEVER SOME SIGNALS OF TRIGGERING OF CYCLE OF
REPLACEMENT OF THE EYEWALL WHICH CAN MAKE THE INTENSITY VARY
DOWNWARDS.

IN THE SHORT TERM, NO CHANGE IN TERMS OF EXPECTED TRAJECTORY: EMNATI
CONTINUES ITS TRAJECTORY ON A GENERAL WEST-SOUTH-WEST COURSE UNDER
THE EFFECT OF THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH-EAST. THE CONSENSUS IN THE
GUIDELINES IS CONFIRMED FOR A PASSAGE AT A DISTANCE OF MORE THAN
300KM FROM THE ISLANDS OF MAURITIUS AND REUNION. THEREAFTER, A NEW
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTH-WEST, FAVORING THE
MAINTENANCE OF THE WEST-SOUTH-WEST TRACK UNTIL ITS LANDING ON
MADAGASCAR, ON TUESDAY DURING THE DAY, BETWEEN MANANJARY AND
VATOMANDRY. EMNATI IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE MAINLAND AT HIGH SPEED
AND EXIT INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL IN THE AFTERNOON OF WEDNESDAY.
ONCE ON THE SEA, EMNATI WILL TAKE A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST DIRECTION.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE
WITH WARM WATERS, DECREASING SHEAR AND A VERY GOOD ALTITUDE
DIVERGENCE. EMNATI IS NOW IN AN INTENSIFICATION PHASE LEADING IT TO
THE STAGE OF INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE AFTER ITS PASSAGE NEAR THE
MASCARENE ISLANDS. THE INTENSIFICATION COULD BE TEMPORARILY GENERATED
BY THE FEATURES OF THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. BUT OVERALL, EMNATI
WILL INTENSIFY STEADILY UNTIL IT MAKES LANDFALL OVER MADAGASCAR, WITH
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAINING GOOD. ON LONGER TIME SCALES,
EMNATI WILL EMERGE OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL MUCH WEAKENED AND WILL
SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWARD INTO A POST-TROPICAL SYSTEM
BY THURSDAY.

IN TERMS OF IMPACTS, CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE OVER
MAURITIUS AND REUNION. THE MOST PROBABLE SCENARIO GIVES GALE
CONDITIONS (ASSOCIATED WITH GUSTS TO 90-100 KM/H ON SEA) ON THE
ISLANDS. AT THE MARGIN OF THE ACTIVE CORE OF THE SYSTEM, THE HEAVY
RAINS WOULD BE LIMITED TO THE RELIEF AREAS. IN THE LONGER TIME
SCALES, THE IMPACT AREA ON THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR, EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY, IS STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN, BUT THE MOST PROBABLE IMPACT AREA
SEEMS TO BE BETWEEN VATOMANDRY AND MANANJARY, EVEN IF ALTERNATIVE
SCENARIOS REMAIN POSSIBLE.

THE INHABITANTS OF THE MASCAREIGNES AND OF THE EAST COAST OF
MADAGASCAR ARE THUS INVITED TO FOLLOW WITH ATTENTION THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS SYSTEM.=

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