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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220220092826.16DC31C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sun, 20 Feb 2022 09:28:26 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 200928
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Feb 20 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0845 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A ridge across the eastern=20
slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains of Mexico will continue to=20
support a gale-force gap wind event across the Tehuantepec region
through sunrise Sun morning. Gale-force northerly winds to near 40
kt are blowing across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and currently=20
extend offshore to near 14.5N. Peak seas in the 10 to 12 ft=20
range will persist through sunrise. Winds are forecast to=20
diminish below gale force Sun morning and gradually diminish=20
through Mon. Refer to the NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the=20
National Hurricane Center at website:

https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.hurricanes.gov/marine/MIAHSFEP2.sht=
ml__;!!DZ3fjg!pINW_cR5U9EaLlhatphc4PbFOU7wwUmQ8fSMzTMrUXteBNw5Sedjodahb4f0b=
AY5m7ThOJK6$  for more=20
details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...=20

A trough extends from a 1009 mb low pressure over northern=20
Colombia near 10N74W to 03.5N94W. The ITCZ continues from=20
03.5N94W to 04.5N114W to 07N122W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered=20
moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 90 nm N of=20
ITCZ W of 132W.=20

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

A Gale Warning remains in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec.=20
Please, see the Special Features section for details. Winds=20
across the Tehuantepec region will gradually diminish Sun=20
morning through Mon before falling below 20 kt Mon afternoon.
Favorable marine conditions are expected to prevail across
Tehuantepec throughout the upcoming week.

A broad ridge continues to dominate the offshore forecast waters
of Baja California, producing gentle to moderate northerly=20
winds. Long period NW swell continues to affect the region with=20
seas of 4-6 ft across the area. Weakening high pressure over the
Great Basin of the USA supports gentle to moderate NW winds=20
across the central and southern parts of the Gulf of California=20
while gentle winds are noted across N portions the Gulf. Seas=20
are generally 2 to 4 ft.

Seas will subside modestly across the offshore waters of Baja=20
California tonight through Mon. Seas generated by strong winds=20
off California are forecast to reach the waters N of Punta=20
Eugenia Mon night into Tue. Southerly winds will prevail across=20
the north and central parts of the Gulf of California Sun through
Tue night. Looking ahead, fresh to strong NW winds and building=20
seas are expected late Tue through Wed offshore Baja California=20
Norte, while strong SW to W winds develop across the northern=20
Gulf of California as a cold front or frontal trough moves across
the area.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and=20
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to strong NE gap winds are noted across the Gulf of Papagayo
and downwind to near 10N90W. Moderate to locally fresh northerly
winds prevail inside the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle winds=20
remain elsewhere. Seas of 3-6 ft prevail across the area except=20
6 to 8 ft downwind of Papagayo.=20

Strong gap winds are expected across the Papagayo region tonight
through early next week as a strong high pressure slides from=20
the Ohio Valley of the United States into the western Atlantic.=20
The strongest winds of 25 to 30 kt are expected each night=20
through Mon night, with seas building 8-9 ft downstream of the=20
Papagayo region to about 90W-92W. Fresh to locally strong N winds
will pulse at night in the Gulf of Panama each night through Mon
night, with seas building to 7 ft. Seas generated in the=20
Tehuantepec and Papagayo gap wind areas are forecast to propagate
into the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador through=20
Mon. Light to gentle winds will remain elsewhere.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

Strong high pressure located well NW of the area extends a ridge
SE to near the Revillagigedo Islands covering the waters north=20
of the ITCZ. The pressure gradient between the high and ITCZ is=20
producing an area of fresh trades over the open waters N of the=20
ITCZ to 18N and W of 115W based on overnight scatterometer data.
Seas in the trade wind area are 9 to 10 ft in mixed NW swell and
NE wind waves. Elsewhere, from 03N to 22N and W of 113W seas are
7-9 ft also in mixed long period NW swell and NE wind waves.

Fresh to locally strong trade winds winds will continue north of
the ITCZ to about 15N-20N and west of 125W over the next couple=20
of days. Seas will gradually subside across the waters W of 115W
through Mon. Seas generated by strong winds off California are=20
forecast to reach the NE waters by late Mon and raise seas to 7-9
ft. Increasing trade winds are expected across the tropical
Pacific W of 115W by Wed leading to an increase in seas.

$$
Stripling


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