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From: <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: RSMC La Reunion Tropical Cyclone Analysis
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Message-ID: <20220220115437.8680C1C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sun, 20 Feb 2022 11:54:37 +0000
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453 
AWIO20 FMEE 201106

TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE

BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN

DATE: 2022/02/20 AT 1200 UTC

PART 1:

WARNING SUMMARY:


Warning WTIO22 016/05 and WTIO30 FMEE 020/05 issued at 06UTC on Tropical Cyclone EMNATI.

Next warnings at 12UTC.

PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:


The monsoon flow is currently noisy due to the presence of a near equator ridge over the northern center of the basin. The monsoon flow is therefore mainly established west of 70oE, where it converges within the tropical cyclone EMNATI. This one concentrates most of the convective activity over the basin.

Convection is also found to a lesser extent in the slowdown of the monsoon flow towards 12 S between 70 and 80oE. Elsewhere, convection is anecdotal.

The trans-equatorial monsoon flow should progressively re-establish in the next 24-48h over the whole width of the basin, and thus allow the return of a (short) monsoon trough towards 11S east of 75E.

However, cyclogenesis will have a hard time setting up, due to a lack of low-level convergence and weak to moderate mid-tropospheric shear, during the next week.

Tropical Cyclone EMNATI :

Position at 09 UTC : 17.4oS / 55.6oE

Displacement : WSW at 7 kt

Maximum wind averaged over 10 minutes : 85kt

Minimum central pressure : 955hPa

For more information, please refer to bulletins WTIO22 and WTIO30 issued at 06UTC and following.

There is no further risk of moderate tropical storm formation over the basin for the next 5 days.


NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of the genesis of a moderate tropical storm over the basin and within the next five days:

Very low:       less than 10%              Moderate:        30% to 60%        Very high:      over 90%
Low:             10% to 30%                  High:               60% to 90%

The Southwestern Indian Ocean basin extends from the equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.

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