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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220220154430.196041C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sun, 20 Feb 2022 15:44:30 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 201543
TWDEP=20

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun Feb 20 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A ridge across the eastern=20
slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains of Mexico will continue to=20
support a gale-force gap wind event across the Tehuantepec region
through this morning. Winds are forecast to diminish below gale=20
force late this morning or early this afternoon. Then, fresh to=20
strong northerly winds will persist across the Gulf of Tehunatepec
through Mon. Seas will gradually subside below 8 ft on Mon.=20
Refer to the NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National=20
Hurricane Center at website:

https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.hurricanes.gov/marine/MIAHSFEP2.sht=
ml__;!!DZ3fjg!pQVIkC3Qv1soPYpB-9nzmXTDy9UiJSEL3NIYxrFRz8PVbpqEGgB_2wNbMTM6V=
jKGyKzQOsFC$  for more=20
details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...=20

A trough extends from a 1009 mb low pressure over northern=20
Colombia near 10N74W to 03N91W. The ITCZ continues from 03N91W=20
to 06N120W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 06N to 08N between 134W and 137W.=20

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

A Gale Warning remains in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec.=20
Please, see the Special Features section for details. Winds=20
across the Tehuantepec region will gradually diminish Sun=20
morning through Mon before falling below 20 kt Mon afternoon.
Favorable marine conditions are expected to prevail across
Tehuantepec throughout the week.

A broad ridge continues to dominate the offshore forecast waters
of Baja California, producing gentle to moderate northerly=20
winds. Long period NW swell continues to affect the region with=20
seas of 3-5 ft across the area. Weakening high pressure over the
Great Basin of the USA supports gentle to moderate NW winds=20
across the central and southern parts of the Gulf of California=20
while gentle winds are noted across N portions the Gulf. Seas are
generally 1 to 3 ft.

Seas will subside modestly across the offshore waters of Baja=20
California tonight through Mon. Seas generated by strong winds=20
off California are forecast to reach the waters N of Punta=20
Eugenia Mon night into Tue. Southerly winds will prevail across=20
the north and central parts of the Gulf of California through=20
Tue night. Looking ahead, fresh to strong NW winds and building=20
seas are expected late Tue through Wed offshore Baja California=20
Norte, while strong SW to W winds develop across the northern=20
Gulf of California as a cold front or frontal trough moves across
the area.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and=20
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to strong NE gap winds are noted across the Gulf of Papagayo
and downwind to near 10N91W. Moderate to locally fresh northerly
winds prevail inside the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle winds=20
remain elsewhere. Seas of 3-6 ft prevail across the area except 8
to 10 ft downwind of Papagayo.=20

Strong gap winds are expected across the Papagayo region through
Mon night as a strong high pressure slides from the Ohio Valley=20
of the United States into the western Atlantic. The strongest=20
winds of 25 to 30 kt are expected tonight, and again Mon night,=20
with seas building 8-10 ft downstream of the Papagayo region to=20
about 90W-92W. Fresh to locally strong N winds will pulse at=20
night in the Gulf of Panama each night through Mon night, with=20
seas building to 7 ft. Seas generated in the Tehuantepec and=20
Papagayo gap wind areas are forecast to propagate into the=20
offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador through Mon. Light=20
to gentle winds will remain elsewhere.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

Strong high pressure located well NW of the area extends a ridge
SE to near the Revillagigedo Islands covering the waters north=20
of the ITCZ. The pressure gradient between the high and ITCZ is=20
producing an area of fresh trades over the open waters N of the=20
ITCZ to 18N and W of 115W based on latest scatterometer data.=20
Seas in the trade wind area are 9 to 10 ft in mixed NW swell and=20
NE wind waves. Elsewhere, from 06N to 18N and W of 121W seas are
7-9 ft also in mixed long period NW swell and NE wind waves.

Fresh to locally strong trade winds will continue north of the=20
ITCZ to about 15N-20N and west of 125W over the next couple of=20
days. Seas will gradually subside across the waters W of 115W=20
through Mon. Seas generated by strong winds off California are=20
forecast to reach the NE waters by late Mon and raise seas to 7-9
ft. Increasing trade winds are expected across the tropical=20
Pacific W of 115W by Wed leading to an increase in seas.

$$
GR


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