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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Intense Tropical Cyclone 5 (emnati) 
Message-ID: <20220220192144.398131C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sun, 20 Feb 2022 19:21:44 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 201915
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 23/5/20212022
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (EMNATI)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/20 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.6 S / 54.6 E
(SEVENTEEN    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FOUR    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 947 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 95 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 22 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 445 SW: 390 NW: 365
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 205 SW: 335 NW: 305
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 170
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 95

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/21 06 UTC: 18.3 S / 53.2 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 510 SW: 400 NW: 380
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 285 SW: 285 NW: 240
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 75

24H: 2022/02/21 18 UTC: 19.2 S / 51.8 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 545 SW: 400 NW: 350
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 305 SW: 280 NW: 230
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SW: 120 NW: 120
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 75

36H: 2022/02/22 06 UTC: 20.3 S / 49.7 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 510 SW: 270 NW: 285
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 285 SW: 215 NW: 195
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 130
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 75

48H: 2022/02/22 18 UTC: 21.2 S / 48.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 510 SW: 175 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 295 SW: 120 NW: 155

60H: 2022/02/23 06 UTC: 22.7 S / 46.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 520 SW: 305 NW: 260

72H: 2022/02/23 18 UTC: 24.7 S / 43.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 520 SW: 350 NW: 315
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 315 SW: 240 NW: 220

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/24 18 UTC: 29.1 S / 41.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 520 SW: 350 NW: 345
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 325 SW: 260 NW: 220

120H: 2022/02/25 18 UTC: 32.6 S / 41.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 530 SW: 480 NW: 435
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 345 SW: 350 NW: 270

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.5+

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE EYE PATTERN HAS BEEN MAINTAINED. HOWEVER,
THE SSMIS PASS AT 1432Z AND THE GMI PASS AT 1409Z SHOW THE BEGINNING
OF A EYE CYCLE REPLACEMENT. THE 1440Z DATA SAR , AS WELL AS THE 1410Z
SMOS SWATH  DO NOT SUPPORT AN INTENSIFICATION OF EMNATI. MOREOVER,
THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS AVERAGED OVER 3 HOURS GIVES A FT OF
5.5+, ALWAYS DEFINING ESTIMATED WINDS OF ABOUT 95KT, AT THE MINIMAL
STAGE OF INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE. CONSEQUENTLY THE CURRENT INTENSITY
OF THE SYSTEM IS LEFT AT 95KT

IN THE SHORT TERM, NO CHANGE IN TERMS OF EXPECTED TRAJECTORY: EMNATI
CONTINUES ITS TRAJECTORY ON A GENERAL WEST-SOUTH-WEST COURSE UNDER
THE EFFECT OF THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH-EAST. THE CONSENSUS IN THE
GUIDELINES IS CONFIRMED FOR A PASSAGE AT A DISTANCE OF ABOUT 350KM
FROM THE ISLAND OF REUNION. THEREAFTER, A NEW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTH-WEST, FAVORING THE MAINTENANCE OF THE
WEST-SOUTH-WEST TRACK UNTIL ITS LANDING ON MADAGASCAR, ON TUESDAY
DURING THE DAY, BETWEEN MANANJARY AND VATOMANDRY. EMNATI IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE MAINLAND AT HIGH SPEED AND EXIT INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL IN THE AFTERNOON OF WEDNESDAY. ONCE ON THE SEA, EMNATI WILL
TAKE A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST DIRECTION.

IIN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE
WITH WARM WATERS, DECREASING SHEAR AND A VERY GOOD ALTITUDE
DIVERGENCE. HOWEVER, EMNATI COULD START A SLIGHT WEAKENING PHASE AT
SOME POINT, IN CONNECTION WITH THE BEGINNINGS OF A NEW EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE. EMNATI SHOULD THEREFORE REMAIN AT THE STAGE OF AN
INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE, INTENSIFYING REGULARLY UNTIL IT MAKES
LANDFALL OVER MADAGASCAR, WITH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAINING
GOOD. IN THE LONGER TERM, EMNATI WILL EMERGE OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL MUCH WEAKENED AND WILL SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS IT DIVES SOUTHWARD
INTO A POST-TROPICAL SYSTEM BY THURSDAY.

IN TERMS OF IMPACTS, CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE OVER REUNION.
THE MOST PROBABLE SCENARIO GIVES GALE CONDITIONS (ASSOCIATED WITH
GUSTS TO 90-100 KM/H ON SEA). AT THE MARGIN OF THE ACTIVE CORE OF THE
SYSTEM, THE HEAVY RAINS WOULD BE LIMITED TO THE RELIEF AREAS. IN THE
LONGER TIME SCALES, THE IMPACT AREA ON THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR,
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY, IS STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN, BUT THE MOST PROBABLE
IMPACT AREA SEEMS TO BE BETWEEN VATOMANDRY AND FARAFANGANA, EVEN IF
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS REMAIN POSSIBLE.

THE INHABITANTS OF THE MASCAREIGNES AND OF THE EAST COAST OF
MADAGASCAR ARE THUS INVITED TO FOLLOW WITH ATTENTION THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS SYSTEM.=

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