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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Intense Tropical Cyclone 5 (emnati) 
Message-ID: <20220221012329.3C2131C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Mon, 21 Feb 2022 01:23:29 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 210032
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 24/5/20212022
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (EMNATI)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/21 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.6 S / 54.1 E
(SEVENTEEN    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FOUR    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 952 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 22 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 445 SW: 390 NW: 365
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 205 SW: 335 NW: 305
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 170
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 95

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/21 12 UTC: 18.7 S / 52.6 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 530 SW: 445 NW: 360
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 295 SW: 295 NW: 230
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 120 SW: 130 NW: 120
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 85

24H: 2022/02/22 00 UTC: 20.0 S / 50.8 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 545 SW: 315 NW: 345
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 305 SW: 240 NW: 230
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 120
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 85

36H: 2022/02/22 12 UTC: 21.3 S / 49.0 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 500 SW: 205 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 285 SW: 165 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SW: 65 NW: 65

48H: 2022/02/23 00 UTC: 22.4 S / 47.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

60H: 2022/02/23 12 UTC: 24.1 S / 45.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 500 SW: 445 NW: 305
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 295 SW: 315 NW: 205

72H: 2022/02/24 00 UTC: 25.9 S / 43.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 520 SW: 380 NW: 295
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 315 SW: 280 NW: 205

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/25 00 UTC: 29.9 S / 41.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 465 SE: 545 SW: 400 NW: 380
34 KT NE: 270 SE: 345 SW: 270 NW: 250

120H: 2022/02/26 00 UTC: 32.7 S / 41.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 530 SW: 545 NW: 445
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 345 SW: 390 NW: 280

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.0 AND CI=5.5


OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE EYE PATTERN OF THE INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE EMNATI HAS UNDERGONE SIGNIFICANT FLUCTUATIONS. THE EYE HAS
PROGRESSIVELY CONTRACTED WHILE BECOMING WARMER AND LESS WELL DEFINED.
THE EYE WALL HAS ALSO COOLED DURING THE LAST TWO HOURS BEFORE A
WARMING PHASE. NOTE ALSO THAT EMNATI HAD AN ERRATIC DISPLACEMENT WHEN
PASSING NORTH OF THE MASCAREIGNES. THESE IMPORTANT FLUCTUATIONS ARE
CERTAINLY DUE TO THE PHASE OF THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE WHICH IS
IN PROGRESS, AS SUGGESTED BY THE 2209Z AMSR2 WHICH SHOWS THE INTERNAL
WALL SURROUNDED BY AN EXTERNAL WALL IN THE PROCESS OF CONSTITUTION.

THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS LEFT TO 90 KT AT THE MINIMAL STAGE OF
INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE, IN COHERENCE WITH THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
ANALYSES AVERAGED OVER 3 HOURS AROUND 5.0, AND THE OBJECTIVE ANALYSES
AVAILABLE (SATCON, ADT AND AIDT).

IN THE SHORT TERM, NO CHANGE IN TERMS OF EXPECTED TRAJECTORY: EMNATI
CONTINUES ITS TRACK ON A GENERAL WEST-SOUTH-WEST COURSE UNDER THE
EFFECT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE
CONSENSUS IN THE GUIDELINES IS CONFIRMED FOR A PASSAGE AT A DISTANCE
OF ABOUT 380KM FROM THE REUNION. AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, A NEW
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTH-WEST, FAVOURING THE
MAINTENANCE OF THE WEST-SOUTH-WEST TRAJECTORY UNTIL ITS LANDING ON
MADAGASCAR, EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH THE SHIFT OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM, EMNATI SHOULD
CROSS MADAGASCAR IN A SOUTH-WESTERLY DIRECTION, ACCELERATING, TO EXIT
IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL ON WEDNESDAY. BACK AT SEA, EMNATI WILL TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF A WEAKNESS OF THE HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS IN THE SOUTH TO
TAKE A SOUTH-SOUTH-WESTERLY DIRECTION MORE FRANKLY TOWARDS THE MIDDLE
LATITUDES.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN VERY
FAVORABLE WITH WARM WATERS, LOW SHEAR AND VERY GOOD ALTITUDE
DIVERGENCE. HOWEVER, WITH THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT PHASE IN PROGRESS,
EMNATI SHOULD REMAIN IN THE SHORT TERM IN INTENSITY BEFORE SLOWLY
STRENGTHENING AGAIN AS IT PROGRESSES TOWARDS THE COAST OF MADAGASCAR.
EMNATI SHOULD THUS GRADUALLY RE-INTENSIFY UNTIL IT MAKES LANDFALL
OVER MADAGASCAR, TAKING ADVANTAGE OF THE EXCELLENT ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS. ON WEDNESDAY EVENING, OR EVEN THURSDAY, EMNATI SHOULD
ENTER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL IN A WEAKENED STATE AND SHOULD
EXPERIENCE A SHORT RE-INTENSIFICATION PHASE AS IT DIVES TOWARDS THE
MID-LATITUDES BEFORE EVOLVING INTO A POST-TROPICAL SYSTEM AT THE END
OF THE WEEK.

IN TERMS OF IMPACTS, THE CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE ON
REUNION: WITH THE CIRCULATION OF EMNATI IN THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF
REUNION, THE PRECIPITATIONS ARE ESSENTIALLY LOCALIZED ON THE VOLCANO
MASSIF AND INLAND. THESE RAINS WILL LAST A GOOD PART OF THE DAY
BEFORE FADING GRADUALLY AT THE END OF THE DAY AND MORE FRANKLY ON
TUESDAY.  IN TERMS OF WIND, THE MAXIMUM GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK AT
110/120 KM/H ON THE COAST AND UP TO 130/140 IN THE HILLS. IN SPITE OF
THE DISTANCE OF EMNATI TOWARDS MADAGASCAR, THE STRONG WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FOR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY ON MONDAY. IT IS ONLY TOMORROW
TUESDAY THAT WE SHOULD SEE A CLEAR IMPROVEMENT.

IN THE LONGER TIME SCALES, THE IMPACT AREA ON THE EAST COAST OF
MADAGASCAR, EXPECTED ON TUESDAY, IS STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE
DISPERSION OF THE NUMERICAL MODELS, BUT THE MOST LIKELY IMPACT AREA
SEEMS TO BE BETWEEN VATOMANDRY AND FARAFANGANA, EVEN IF ALTERNATIVE
SCENARIOS ARE STILL POSSIBLE.

THE INHABITANTS OF THE MASCAREIGNES AND OF THE EAST COAST OF
MADAGASCAR ARE THUS INVITED TO FOLLOW WITH ATTENTION THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS SYSTEM.=

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