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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220221033226.CF48A1C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Mon, 21 Feb 2022 03:32:26 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 210332
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Mon Feb 21 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A trough extends from a 1008 mb low pressure over northern 
Colombia near 09.5N74.5W to 03N95W. The ITCZ continues from 
03N95W to 07N128W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate  
convection is noted within 90 nm N of ITCZ W of 130W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Strong gap winds continue this evening across the Gulf of Tehuantepec
region and extend offshore to near 14.5N. Seas have diminished to
6-8 ft across the immediate Gulf. However, Merging NW, NE and E
swell across the outer offshore waters are maintaining seas of
7-9 ft. Winds will diminish to a narrow plume of strong gap winds
late tonight through Mon morning as high pressure continues to
weaken across the Gulf of Mexico. Winds will then diminish to
below 20 kt Mon evening. Favorable marine conditions are 
expected to prevail across Tehuantepec throughout the week.

A broad ridge continues to extend modestly across the offshore 
forecast waters of Baja California, producing gentle to moderate 
NW winds and seas of 3-5 ft. Afternoon scatterometer data 
indicated light and variable winds over the central and south 
parts of the Gulf of California, including the entrance to the 
Gulf. Seas there are generally 1 to 3 ft.

Seas generated by strong winds off California are forecast to 
reach the waters N of Punta Eugenia Mon night into Tue. Southerly
winds will prevail across the north and central parts of the 
Gulf of California through Tue night. Looking ahead, fresh to 
strong NW winds and building seas are expected late Tue through 
Wed offshore Baja California Norte, while strong SW to W winds 
develop across the northern Gulf of California as a cold front or
frontal trough moves across the area. Seas could reach 8 ft in 
the northern Gulf of California Tue night into Wed. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to strong NE gap winds are noted across the Gulf of
Papagayo region and downwind to near 10N89W. Moderate to fresh 
northerly winds prevail inside the Gulf of Panama. Light to 
gentle winds remain elsewhere. Seas of 3-6 ft prevail across the 
area except 6 to 9 ft downwind of Papagayo. 

A strong gap wind event is expected across the Papagayo region 
through Mon night as a strong high pressure ridge continues to
dominate the Gulf of Mexico, western Atlantic and Caribbean. The
strongest winds of 25 to 30 kt are expected tonight, and again 
Mon night, with seas building 8-10 ft downstream of the Papagayo 
region to about 90W-91W. Then, fresh to strong winds of 20-25 kt
will prevail across the Papagayo area through Wed night. Fresh 
to locally strong N winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama each 
night through Mon night, with seas building to 7 ft. Seas 
generated in the Tehuantepec and Papagayo gap wind areas are 
forecast to propagate into the offshore waters of Guatemala and 
El Salvador through Mon. Light to gentle winds will remain 
elsewhere.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

Strong high pressure located well NW of the area extends a ridge
SE to near the Revillagigedo Islands covering the waters north 
of the ITCZ. The pressure gradient between the high and ITCZ is 
producing an area of fresh to locally strong trades over the open
waters N of the ITCZ to about 16N and W of 115W. Seas in the 
trade wind area are 9 to 10 ft in mixed NW swell and NE wind 
waves. Elsewhere, from 05N to 16N and W of 122W seas are 7-9 ft 
also in mixed long period NW swell and NE wind waves.

Fresh to locally strong trade winds will continue north of the 
ITCZ to about 15N and west of 125W over the next couple of days.
Seas generated by strong winds off California are forecast to 
reach the NE waters by late Mon and raise seas to 8-9 ft. The 
aerial extent of the trade winds will increase by Wed as a strong
high pressure settles N of area. By that time, fresh to locally
strong NE to E winds and building seas are forecast to cover the
waters from 10N to 22N and W of 125W. 

$$
Stripling


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