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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220221093118.515F71C0087@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Mon, 21 Feb 2022 09:31:18 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 210931
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon Feb 21 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0815 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A trough extends from a 1009 mb low pressure over northern 
Colombia near 09.5N74.5W to 04N80W to 03.5N95W. The ITCZ 
continues from 03.5N95W to 05N112W, then resumes from 06.5N118W
to 07.5N130W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted within 120 nm N of ITCZ W of 132W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Strong gap winds continue tonight across the Gulf of Tehuantepec
region and extend offshore in a relatively narrow plume to near 
14.5N. Seas are 7-8 ft across the immediate Gulf. However, 
merging NW, NE and E swell across the outer offshore waters are 
maintaining seas of 7-8 ft. Winds will diminish through Mon 
morning as high pressure continues to weaken across the Gulf of 
Mexico. Winds will then diminish to below 20 kt Mon evening. 
Favorable marine conditions are expected to prevail across 
Tehuantepec throughout the week.

A middle level disturbance is moving eastward across the Baja
offshore waters tonight, and will continue across the Baja
Peninsula and the Gulf of California today. This has influenced
the surface winds across the offshore waters tonight, with
overnight ASCAT winds depicting gentle NW winds. A broad ridge 
centered well NW of the area will build modestly across the
offshore waters today to produce moderate NW winds across the
offshore waters. Meanwhile, inside the Gulf of California, gentle
to moderate W to SW winds prevail across south and central
portions, while fresh to locally strong SW winds have developed
in recent hours across N portions, and are producing a zone of 
strong gap winds and quickly building seas. 

Seas generated by strong winds off California are forecast to 
reach the waters N of Punta Eugenia Mon night into Tue. Fresh to
strong SW to W will develop across the north and central parts 
of the Gulf of California Mon with strong gusty gap winds
producing rough seas. Moderate to fresh S to SW winds are then
expected to prevail through Tue night, with strong to near gale
force SW gap winds expected across N portions late Tue and Tue
night. Fresh to strong NW winds and building seas are expected 
late Tue through Wed offshore Baja California Norte as a cold 
front or frontal trough moves across the area. Seas could reach 8
ft in the northern Gulf of California Tue night into Wed and 7 to
9 ft across Baja Norte offshore waters.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to strong NE gap winds are noted across the Gulf of
Papagayo region and downwind to near 10N91W. Fresh to locally
strong northerly winds prevail inside the Gulf of Panama. Light 
to gentle winds remain elsewhere. Seas of 6-8 ft prevail downwind
of Papagayo, 4-6 ft across the Gulf of Panama, and 3-5 ft
elsewhere.

Strong gap winds are expected across the Papagayo region through
Mon night as a strong high pressure ridge continues to dominate 
the Gulf of Mexico, western Atlantic and Caribbean. The strongest
winds of 25 to 30 kt are expected tonight, and again Mon night, 
with seas building 8-9 ft downstream of the Papagayo region to 
about 90W-91W. Then, fresh to strong winds of 20-25 kt will 
prevail across the Papagayo area through Wed night. Fresh to 
locally strong N winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama each 
night through Mon night, with seas building to 7 ft. Seas 
generated in the Tehuantepec and Papagayo gap wind areas are 
forecast to propagate into the offshore waters of Guatemala and 
El Salvador through Mon. Light to gentle winds will remain 
elsewhere.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

Strong high pressure located well NW of the area extends a ridge
SE to near the Revillagigedo Islands covering the waters north 
of the ITCZ. The pressure gradient between the high and ITCZ is 
producing an area of moderate to fresh trades over the open 
waters N of the ITCZ to about 19N and W of 115W. Seas in the 
trade wind area are 9 to 10 ft in mixed NW swell and NE wind 
waves. Elsewhere, S of 18N and W of 110W seas are 7-9 ft also in
mixed long period NW swell and NE wind waves.

Fresh to locally strong trade winds will continue north of the 
ITCZ to about 15N and west of 120W over the next couple of days.
Seas generated by strong winds off California are forecast to 
reach the NE waters by late Mon and raise seas to 8-9 ft. The 
aerial extent of the trade winds will increase by Wed as a strong
high pressure settles N of area. By that time, fresh to locally
strong NE to E winds and building seas are forecast to cover the
waters from 10N to 22N and W of 125W. 

$$
Stripling


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