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From: <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: RSMC La Reunion Tropical Cyclone Analysis
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Message-ID: <20220221114930.410781C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Mon, 21 Feb 2022 11:49:30 +0000
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083 
AWIO20 FMEE 211102

TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE

BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN 
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN 

DATE: 2022/02/21 AT 1200 UTC

PART 1:

WARNING SUMMARY:


Warning WTIO22 25/05 and WTIO30 FMEE 025/05 issued at 06UTC on Tropical Cyclone EMNATI.

Next warnings at 12UTC.

PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:

Over the western part of the basin, the configuration is driven by the presence of the tropical cyclone EMNATI which continues its route towards Madagascar. Over the east, the monsoon flow started to recover east of 65oE while the near equatorial ridge located in the center of the basin weakened. A monsoon trough (MT) is then established around 12oS east of 60oE.

The convective activity is currently mainly located around the cyclone but also to a lesser extent on the equatorial side of the TM.

In the next few days, despite the return of the TM, cyclogenesis will have a hard time setting up because of a lack of convergence of low layers and a weak to moderate shear of the middle troposphere. At the very end of the period, the environmental conditions could start to be a little less unfavorable.

Tropical Cyclone EMNATI :

Position on 02/21 at 09UTC : 18.0oS / 53.1oE

Movement : WSW at 6 kt

Maximum wind averaged over 10 minutes : 75 kt

Estimated pressure at the center : 958 hPa
For more information, please refer to bulletins WTIO22 and WTIO30 issued at 06UTC and following.

There is no further risk of a moderate tropical storm forming over the basin for the next 5 days.

NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of the genesis of a moderate tropical storm over the basin and within the next five days:

Very low:       less than 10%              Moderate:        30% to 60%        Very high:      over 90%
Low:             10% to 30%                  High:               60% to 90%
                                                                                                                                         
The Southwestern Indian Ocean basin extends from the equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.


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