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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Tropical Cyclone 5 (emnati) 
Message-ID: <20220221133733.BD17C1C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Mon, 21 Feb 2022 13:37:33 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 211317
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 26/5/20212022
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (EMNATI)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/21 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.2 S / 52.8 E
(EIGHTEEN    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY TWO    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 958 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 75 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 69 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 465 SW: 465 NW: 405
34 KT NE: 295 SE: 315 SW: 280 NW: 295
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1003 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/22 00 UTC: 19.5 S / 51.2 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 520 SW: 465 NW: 370
34 KT NE: 295 SE: 315 SW: 295 NW: 295
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 140 NW: 120
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 75

24H: 2022/02/22 12 UTC: 21.0 S / 49.4 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 520 SW: 445 NW: 370
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 315 SW: 260 NW: 240
48 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SW: 140 NW: 130
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 65 NW: 65

36H: 2022/02/23 00 UTC: 22.2 S / 47.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 500 SW: 295 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 295 SW: 150 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 65 SW: 0 NW: 0

48H: 2022/02/23 12 UTC: 24.1 S / 45.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 480 SW: 295 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 295 SW: 205 NW: 185

60H: 2022/02/24 00 UTC: 25.8 S / 43.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 480 SW: 350 NW: 315
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 315 SW: 220 NW: 215

72H: 2022/02/24 12 UTC: 28.0 S / 42.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 480 SW: 390 NW: 370
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 315 SW: 240 NW: 230

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/25 12 UTC: 31.6 S / 42.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 510 SE: 500 SW: 455 NW: 415
34 KT NE: 285 SE: 345 SW: 285 NW: 260

120H: 2022/02/26 12 UTC: 33.5 S / 43.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 655 SW: 600 NW: 520
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 445 SW: 370 NW: 335

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.0-


THE CYCLONE'S SLOW EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC) IS STILL ONGOING :
LATEST CLASSICAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE
PERSISTENCE OF A RESIDUAL INTERNAL EYEWALL STILL SURROUNDED BY AN
EXTERNAL WALL THAT IS BECOMING STRONGER. COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF
ADDITIONAL DATA (SAR 0146Z, SMAP 0223Z) ALLOWS US TO ESTIMATE THAT
THE 06Z INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS PROBABLY OVERESTIMATED AND WOULD
ACTUALLY BE CLOSER TO 70/75 KT THAN 85 KT (WEAKENING LINKED TO THE
ERC). IN THE ABSENCE OF NEW OBJECTIVE DATA, AND WITH DVORAK ANALYSIS
NOT VERY RELEVANT TO ASSESS THE SYSTEM'S INTENSITY BECAUSE OF THE
ONGOING ERC PROCESS, THE ESTIMATED INTENSITY AT 12UTC IS KEPT AT 75
KT. THE PARTIAL ASCAT PASSES AROUND 06UTC HAVE ALLOWED TO ADJUST WIND
EXTENSIONS ESTIMATES.

EMNATI IS TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND THEN A LITTLE MORE
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM TONIGHT UNDER THE EFFECT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL QUITE DISPERSED
ABOUT THE MORE OR LESS SOUTHWARD COMPONENT OF THIS TRACK, AND
THEREFORE ON THE LANDFALL AREA OVER MADAGASCAR ON TUESDAY EVENING. ON
THIS POINT, THE RSMC'S TRACK IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN VARIOUS
AVAILABLE SCENARIOS. EMNATI SHOULD THEN EMERGE AT SEA SOUTH OF
MADAGASCAR ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SMALL WEAKNESS IN THE HIGH
GEOPOTENTIALS TO THE SOUTH-WEST AND A STRENGTHENING OF THE RIDGE
FURTHER EAST SHOULD MAKE THE SYSTEM SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD, CROSSING
THE 30TH PARALLEL ON FRIDAY, BUT WITHOUT ANY QUICK MOVEMENT TOWARDS
THE MID-LATITUDES BECAUSE OF A BAROMETRIC COL SITUATION.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE,
WITH LOW WIND SHEAR AND VERY GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, WHICH WILL
EVEN CONTINUE UNTIL THURSDAY. AFTER THE TEMPORARY WEAKENING DUE TO
THE ERC, EMNATI SHOULD RESUME INTENSIFICATION FROM THIS MONDAY
EVENING AND AS IT PROGRESSES TOWARDS MADAGASCAR, POTENTIALLY
REGAINING INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL. BETWEEN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, EMNATI SHOULD EMERGE AT SEA IN A FAIRLY
WEAKENED STATE WITH A POORLY CONSOLIDATED CENTER, BUT SHOULD
EXPERIENCE A MODEST RE-INTENSIFICATION BEFORE EVOLVING INTO A
POST-TROPICAL SYSTEM ON FRIDAY BY MOVING OVER COLDER SST AND UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASING SHEAR AND DRY AIR ADVECTION OVER THE
NORTH OFF THE CIRCULATION.

EXPECTED IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS :
- REUNION ISLAND : DISTURBED WEATHER THIS MONDAY EVENING IN THE WAKE
OF THE CYCLONE WHICH IS SLOWLY MOVING AWAY (STRONG GUSTS IN THE
HIGHLANDS, LOCALLY SUSTAINED PRECIPITATIONS AND HIGH SWELL ON THE
NORTH OF THE ISLAND). IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.
- MADAGASCAR : EMNATI IS A VERY DANGEROUS CYCLONE WHICH SHOULD MAKE
LANDFALL ON TUESDAY EVENING POTENTIALLY AS AN INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE. THE LANDFALL AREA IS STILL UNCERTAIN, WITH A HIGHER
PROBABILITY OVER THE FIANARANTSOA PROVINCE, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN
MANANJARY, MANAKARA AND FARAFANGANA (ALTHOUGH THIS WILL NEED TO BE
CONFIRMED). NEAR THE IMPACT ZONE, DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS NEAR 200
KM/H, 10 METERS HIGH WAVES OFFSHORE, STORM SURGE REACHING AROUND 1
METER AND VERY INTENSE RAINFALL IN THE AREA (UP TO 200-400 MM IN THE
LOWLANDS AND NEARLY 500 MM ON THE NEARBY MOUNTAINS IN 24 HOURS) WHICH
CAN PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING. THE INHABITANTS ARE INVITED TO
FOLLOW WITH ATTENTION THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AND TO FOLLOW
LOCAL AUTHORITIES' INSTRUCTIONS.=

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