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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220221160825.3E8771C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Mon, 21 Feb 2022 16:08:25 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 211605
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon Feb 21 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A trough extends from 07N77W to 04N84W. A second trough extends
from 07N88W to 00N90W. The ITCZ extends from 04N95W to 10N115W to
beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
07N-10N between 134W-140W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

A weakening Tehuantepecer gap wind event is producing fresh to 
strong N winds this morning. Low pressure over the U.S. Great 
Basin along with high pressure well northwest of our waters is 
promoting fresh to strong W to NW winds over the central and N 
Gulf of California, but only moderate or weaker winds elsewhere. 
Seas remain below 8 ft in all of the Mexican offshore zones 
currently.

Fresh to strong N winds will persist across the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec today before diminishing tonight. Fresh to strong SW 
to W winds are expected to continue across central and N portions
of the Gulf of California through Wed morning. By Wed afternoon,
a cold front should reach the N Gulf of California and force 
fresh to strong NW winds across the entire Gulf on Thu and Fri 
with seas to reach up to 8 ft. Large swell generated by strong 
winds off California are forecast to reach the waters north of 
Punta Eugenia tonight into Tue. Beginning Wed, fresh to strong NW
winds and building seas are expected offshore Baja California 
Norte and continue progressing southward to offshore of Baja 
California Sur by Thu. Looking ahead, the next Tehuanteper N gap 
wind event may begin Fri night.


OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

High pressure over the Caribbean Sea along with troughing over 
the E equatorial Pacific waters is inducing fresh to strong NE 
gap winds over the Papagayo region and fresh to strong N winds 
over the Gulf of Panama this morning. Seas are up to 8 ft in the
Papagayo region and lower elsewhere.

Fresh to strong NE gap winds are expected across the Papagayo 
region through Wed night, before diminishing to moderate to fresh
through Fri night. Fresh to strong N winds will pulse in the 
Gulf of Panama each night through Tue night, before diminishing 
to moderate to fresh through Fri night. Seas generated in the 
Tehuantepec and Papagayo gap wind areas are forecast to propagate
into the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador through 
Tue. Light to gentle winds will remain elsewhere. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

A ridge of high pressure extends from 30N125W southeastward to
15N100W. This along with lower pressure along the ITCZ is
producing moderate to fresh NE to E trades mainly from 08N-15N 
west of 100W. Seas peak at 8-10 ft within the moderate to fresh
trades and 5-7 ft elsewhere. Winds will change little through
Wed. On Thu and Fri, a surface trough developing along 125W will
increase the trades to fresh to strong. Beginning tonight, NW
large swell will reach our N border and will gradually move
southward and combine with the NE wind waves from 10N-20N west of
120W by Thu and Fri.

$$
Landsea


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