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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Tropical Cyclone 5 (emnati) 
Message-ID: <20220221180551.D2CA81C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Mon, 21 Feb 2022 18:05:51 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 211801
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 27/5/20212022
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (EMNATI)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/21 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.4 S / 52.0 E
(EIGHTEEN    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY TWO    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 958 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 75 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 61 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 465 SW: 465 NW: 405
34 KT NE: 295 SE: 315 SW: 280 NW: 295
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1003 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/22 06 UTC: 20.1 S / 50.2 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 435 SE: 530 SW: 325 NW: 315
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 315 SW: 220 NW: 215
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 120
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 75

24H: 2022/02/22 18 UTC: 21.4 S / 48.5 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 445 SE: 500 SW: 220 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 270 SE: 305 SW: 155 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SW: 65 NW: 65

36H: 2022/02/23 06 UTC: 22.8 S / 46.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 415 SE: 500 SW: 325 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 305 SW: 120 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 100 NW: 75

48H: 2022/02/23 18 UTC: 24.7 S / 44.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 510 SW: 370 NW: 325
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 325 SW: 230 NW: 215

60H: 2022/02/24 06 UTC: 26.8 S / 42.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 490 SW: 345 NW: 335
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 325 SW: 215 NW: 215

72H: 2022/02/24 18 UTC: 28.9 S / 41.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 500 SE: 520 SW: 400 NW: 400
34 KT NE: 285 SE: 345 SW: 270 NW: 250

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/25 18 UTC: 32.0 S / 42.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 480 SE: 535 SW: 500 NW: 415
34 KT NE: 270 SE: 360 SW: 345 NW: 260

120H: 2022/02/26 18 UTC: 33.8 S / 44.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 695 SW: 610 NW: 490
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 470 SW: 400 NW: 325

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.0-

THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC) OF CYCLONE EMNATI CONTINUES
SLOWLY: THE LATEST CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGES OF
1344UTC SHOW INDEED THE PERSISTENCE OF A RESIDUAL INNER EYEWALL STILL
WELL VISIBLE BUT NOW PARTIAL SURROUNDED BY AN OUTER WALL BECOMING
STRONGER. IN THE ABSENCE OF NEW OBJECTIVE DATA, AND WITH A DVORAK EYE
ANALYSIS NOT VERY RELEVANT TO EVALUATE THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM
BECAUSE OF THE ONGOING ERC PROCESS, THE ESTIMATED INTENSITY AT 18UTC
IS MAINTAINED AT 75 KT.

THE MOVEMENT OF EMNATI STILL WEST SOUTH-WEST SHOULD TAKE A
SOUTH-WESTERN COURSE FROM TONIGHT, UNDER THE EFFECT OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL
QUITE DISPERSED ABOUT THE MORE OR LESS SOUTHWARD COMPONENT OF THIS
TRACK, AND THEREFORE ON THE LANDFALL AREA OVER MADAGASCAR ON TUESDAY
EVENING. ON THIS POINT, THE RSMC'S TRACK IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
VARIOUS AVAILABLE SCENARIOS. EMNATI SHOULD THEN EMERGE AT SEA SOUTH
OF MADAGASCAR ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SMALL WEAKNESS IN THE HIGH
GEOPOTENTIALS TO THE SOUTH-WEST AND A STRENGTHENING OF THE RIDGE
FURTHER EAST SHOULD MAKE THE SYSTEM SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD, CROSSING
THE 30TH PARALLEL ON FRIDAY, BUT WITHOUT ANY QUICK MOVEMENT TOWARDS
THE MID-LATITUDES BECAUSE OF A BAROMETRIC COL SITUATION.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE,
WITH LOW WIND SHEAR AND VERY GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, WHICH WILL
EVEN CONTINUE UNTIL THURSDAY. AFTER THE TEMPORARY WEAKENING DUE TO
THE ERC, EMNATI SHOULD RESUME INTENSIFICATION FROM THIS NIGHT AND AS
IT PROGRESSES TOWARDS MADAGASCAR, POTENTIALLY REGAINING INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL. BETWEEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY, EMNATI SHOULD EMERGE AT SEA IN A FAIRLY WEAKENED STATE
WITH A POORLY CONSOLIDATED CENTER, BUT SHOULD EXPERIENCE A MODEST
RE-INTENSIFICATION BEFORE EVOLVING INTO A POST-TROPICAL SYSTEM ON
FRIDAY BY MOVING OVER COLDER SST AND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
INCREASING SHEAR AND DRY AIR ADVECTION OVER THE NORTH OFF THE
CIRCULATION.

EXPECTED IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS :
- REUNION ISLAND : DISTURBED WEATHER THIS MONDAY EVENING IN THE WAKE
OF THE CYCLONE WHICH IS SLOWLY MOVING AWAY (STRONG GUSTS IN THE
HIGHLANDS, LOCALLY SUSTAINED PRECIPITATIONS AND HIGH SWELL ON THE
NORTH OF THE ISLAND). IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.
- MADAGASCAR : EMNATI IS A VERY DANGEROUS CYCLONE WHICH SHOULD MAKE
LANDFALL ON TUESDAY EVENING POTENTIALLY AS AN INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE. THE LANDFALL AREA IS STILL UNCERTAIN, WITH A HIGHER
PROBABILITY OVER THE FIANARANTSOA PROVINCE, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN
MANANJARY AND FARAFANGANA. NEAR THE IMPACT ZONE, DESTRUCTIVE WIND
GUSTS WHICH CAN EXCEED 200 KM/H, 10 METERS HIGH WAVES OFFSHORE, STORM
SURGE REACHING AROUND 1 METER AND VERY INTENSE RAINFALL IN THE AREA
(UP TO 200-400 MM IN THE LOWLANDS AND NEARLY 500 MM ON THE NEARBY
MOUNTAINS IN 24 HOURS) WHICH CAN PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING. THE
INHABITANTS ARE INVITED TO FOLLOW WITH ATTENTION THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS SYSTEM AND TO FOLLOW LOCAL AUTHORITIES' INSTRUCTIONS.=

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